RB Bragantino
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Garuda Lions Prediction: RB Bragantino
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.82.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — RB Bragantino is the favourite, not a value bet.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc overview
Garuda Lions analysis: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
| Probability | RB Bragantino | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.4% | 20.1% | 11.5% |
| Market | 72.2% | 17.9% | 9.9% |
| Final | 71.3% | 18.4% | 10.3% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.6% | +0.4% |
Why RB Bragantino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.82.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (our 71.3% × 1.34 − 1).
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc match preview
RB Bragantino enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 71%, while Chapecoense-sc has a significantly lower chance at 10%. The expected goals for RB Bragantino stand at 2.22, compared to Chapecoense-sc's 0.82, indicating a potential dominant performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood.
Recent form shows RB Bragantino with mixed results, recording two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Chapecoense-sc has struggled, with four losses and only one draw in their recent outings. The model suggests a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood of both teams scoring, reflecting an expectation of offensive play from RB Bragantino.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc attack and defence ratings
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-sc
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 71.3% | 1.40 | -1.0% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | RB Bragantino win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 71.3% |
| Draw | 18.4% | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | RB Bragantino win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 31.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc stats
RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc recent form
| RB Bragantino |
DWDLLD |
| Chapecoense-sc |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc season so far
RB Bragantino record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 3 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Chapecoense-sc | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.2%, draw 17.9%, away 9.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 5.56 | 10.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.25 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.34 | 5.30 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.32 | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.25 | 9.70 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .