Bahia
vs
Sao Paulo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bahia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bahia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bahia vs Sao Paulo
| Probability | Bahia | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 31.3% | 24.8% |
| Market | 48.0% | 27.0% | 25.0% |
| Final | 47.0% | 28.1% | 24.9% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +1.1% | -0.0% |
Why Bahia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.90.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.01 − 1).
Bahia vs Sao Paulo match preview
In the upcoming match between Bahia and Sao Paulo, the probabilities indicate a favorable outlook for Bahia, with a 47% chance of winning compared to Sao Paulo's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Bahia, with an expected goals metric of 1.27 for Bahia and 0.90 for Sao Paulo. Recent form shows Bahia with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Sao Paulo has three wins, one loss, and one draw.
Head-to-head results in their last three encounters reflect a balanced competition, with each team securing one win and one draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 37%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 44%. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bahia and Sao Paulo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Bahia and Sao Paulo attack and defence ratings
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bahia vs Sao Paulo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 47.0% | 2.13 | -1.0% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 47.0% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Sao Paulo | 24.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bahia win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Bahia vs Sao Paulo stats
Bahia and Sao Paulo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bahia and Sao Paulo season so far
Bahia record
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sao Paulo | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sao Paulo | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Bahia | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.0%, draw 27.0%, away 25.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.53 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.94 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.42 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .