Cruzeiro
vs
Bahia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cruzeiro
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cruzeiro is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruzeiro vs Bahia
| Probability | Cruzeiro | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 22.5% | 19.2% |
| Market | 53.4% | 24.3% | 22.3% |
| Final | 54.7% | 23.8% | 21.5% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% |
Why Cruzeiro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.0% per unit staked (our 54.7% × 1.83 − 1).
Cruzeiro vs Bahia match preview
Cruzeiro enters this match against Bahia with a solid recent form, having won four of their last six games, while Bahia's performance has been mixed with two wins and four losses in their last six outings. The probabilities indicate a favorable outcome for Cruzeiro, with a 55% chance of winning, compared to Bahia's 21%. The expected goals suggest a dominant offensive display from Cruzeiro at 2.11, while Bahia is projected to score 1.15.
In their last three encounters, Cruzeiro has maintained a perfect record against Bahia, winning all matches without conceding a draw or loss. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Cruzeiro, with a significant 63% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cruzeiro and Bahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Cruzeiro and Bahia attack and defence ratings
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cruzeiro vs Bahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 54.7% | 1.83 | +1.2% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 54.7% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Bahia | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% |
| No | 39.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 41.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Cruzeiro vs Bahia stats
Cruzeiro and Bahia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cruzeiro and Bahia season so far
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Bahia | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-15 | Bahia | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-18 | Cruzeiro | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.4%, draw 24.3%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.18 | 4.43 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.85 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 3.85 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 4.05 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.19 | 4.35 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .