Mirassol
vs
Sao Paulo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mirassol
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mirassol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mirassol vs Sao Paulo
| Probability | Mirassol | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 33.2% | 24.4% |
| Market | 40.1% | 29.2% | 30.7% |
| Final | 40.7% | 30.2% | 29.1% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +1.0% | -1.6% |
Why Mirassol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.81.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.38 − 1).
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo match preview
Mirassol will face Sao Paulo in a Brazil Serie A clash with the probabilities showing Mirassol at 42%, a draw at 30%, and Sao Paulo at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Mirassol, with an expected goals tally of 1.16 for Mirassol compared to 0.81 for Sao Paulo.
In terms of recent form, Mirassol has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Sao Paulo has achieved three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record from the last three encounters shows Mirassol with two wins and Sao Paulo with one. Both teams have a 39% chance of scoring, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 31%.
Mirassol and Sao Paulo team news
Mirassol news
- Andre Luis — yellow cards
- Jose Aldo — muscle injury
- Negueba — knee injury
Sao Paulo news
- Buta — knee injury
- Cauly — inactive
- D. Duarte — knee injury
- Ferreira — injury
- N. Bosshardt — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mirassol and Sao Paulo expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Mirassol and Sao Paulo attack and defence ratings
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 40.7% | 2.46 | +0.6% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 40.7% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Sao Paulo | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mirassol win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo stats
Mirassol and Sao Paulo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mirassol and Sao Paulo season so far
Mirassol record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Sao Paulo | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Mirassol | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Sao Paulo | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 29.0%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.28 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 3.26 | 3.13 |
| SBO | 2.19 | 3.01 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .