Internacional
vs
Botafogo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Internacional
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.88.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Internacional is the favourite, not a value bet.
Internacional vs Botafogo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Internacional vs Botafogo
| Probability | Internacional | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.9% | 30.6% | 23.5% |
| Market | 48.2% | 26.1% | 25.7% |
| Final | 47.6% | 27.2% | 25.2% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +1.1% | -0.6% |
Why Internacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.88.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 47.6% × 2.00 − 1).
Internacional vs Botafogo match preview
Internacional and Botafogo face off in a Brazil Serie A match with Internacional holding a 47% probability of winning, compared to Botafogo's 25% and a 28% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Internacional, with an expected goals tally of 1.34 for Internacional and 0.88 for Botafogo.
In terms of recent form, Internacional has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches (L-D-W-L-W-L), while Botafogo has been slightly more consistent with two wins in their last six (W-D-L-L-W-D). The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Internacional and Botafogo team news
Internacional news
- A. Sanabria — inactive
- Allex — inactive
- Anthoni — knee injury
- G. Maripan — muscle injury
- G. Mercado — yellow cards
- Kayky — ankle injury
- Matheus Cunha — suspended
- R. Villagra — yellow cards
- S. Rochet — lower back injury
- Vitinho — yellow cards
Botafogo news
- Arthur Chaves — inactive
- J. Barrera — ankle injury
- Kaio Pantaleao — knee injury
- L. Monzon — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Internacional and Botafogo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Internacional and Botafogo attack and defence ratings
Internacional
Botafogo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Internacional vs Botafogo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.6% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional | 47.6% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Botafogo | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.5% |
| No | 55.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Internacional vs Botafogo stats
Internacional and Botafogo recent form
| Internacional |
LDWLWL |
| Botafogo |
WDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Internacional and Botafogo season so far
Internacional record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Botafogo | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Internacional | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Botafogo | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Internacional vs Botafogo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.1%, draw 26.0%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.72 | 3.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.76 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.64 | 3.51 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.09 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .