Santos
vs
Bahia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santos
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Santos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Santos vs Bahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santos vs Bahia
| Probability | Santos | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 24.9% | 21.2% |
| Market | 49.1% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Final | 50.3% | 25.3% | 24.4% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.1% | -1.1% |
Why Santos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.09.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 50.3% × 2.00 − 1).
Santos vs Bahia match preview
Santos faces Bahia in a Brazil Serie A matchup, with Santos having a 42% chance of winning, while Bahia stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Santos, with an expected goals tally of 1.62 for Santos and 1.24 for Bahia. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Santos recording a sequence of L-D-W-W-L-W and Bahia coming off a strong W-L-L-W-W-W run.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model indicates a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows Santos has not won in their last three encounters, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 win for Bahia. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Santos and Bahia team news
Santos news
- Arthur Melo — muscle injury
- G. Escobar — inactive
- Gabriel Brazao — shoulder injury
- Lucas Verissimo — injury
- Vinicius Lira — knee injury
Bahia news
- Jean Lucas — yellow cards
- Leo Vieira — knee injury
- R. Gomez — yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santos and Bahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Santos and Bahia attack and defence ratings
Santos
Bahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santos vs Bahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 50.3% | 1.99 | +1.2% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 50.3% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Bahia | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Santos vs Bahia stats
Santos and Bahia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santos and Bahia season so far
Santos record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Bahia record
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bahia | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Bahia | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Santos | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-18 | Bahia | Santos | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-31 | Bahia | Santos | Copa Do Brasil | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-17 | Santos | Bahia | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-10 | Santos | Bahia | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2021-09-12 | Santos | Bahia | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2021-05-29 | Bahia | Santos | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2021-02-26 | Bahia | Santos | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santos vs Bahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 25.4%, away 25.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.74 | 3.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.62 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.77 | 3.81 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .