Vasco DA Gama
vs
Corinthians
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasco DA Gama
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.62.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.0% | 20.8% | 9.2% |
| Market | 55.9% | 25.4% | 18.8% |
| Final | 59.4% | 24.2% | 16.4% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.2% | -2.4% |
Why Vasco DA Gama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasco DA Gama below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (our 59.4% × 1.75 − 1).
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians match preview
Vasco DA Gama is favored in their upcoming match against Corinthians, with a 58% probability of winning according to our model. Recent form shows Vasco DA Gama has won four of their last five matches, while Corinthians has struggled significantly, losing their last five games and drawing one. The expected goals for Vasco DA Gama stand at 2.18, compared to just 0.49 for Corinthians, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
Historically, the head-to-head record favors Corinthians, who have won four of the last five encounters, with Vasco DA Gama managing only one draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Vasco DA Gama, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Both teams to score is projected at 35%.
Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians team news
Vasco DA Gama news
- C. Cuesta — inactive
- Cauan Barros — inactive
- Mateus Carvalho — knee injury
Corinthians news
- Kayke — knee injury
- Raniele — inactive
- Z. Labyad — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 59.4% | 1.68 | +3.5% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 59.4% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Corinthians | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 30.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.6% |
| 1-0 | 13.4% | |
| 3-0 | 9.9% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians stats
Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
LLWDWW |
| Corinthians |
DLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians season so far
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Corinthians | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Vasco DA Gama | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-18 | Corinthians | Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Vasco DA Gama | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2025-04-05 | Corinthians | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 25.4%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.82 | 5.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.70 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.91 | 4.96 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .