Vasco DA Gama
vs
Boca Juniors
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasco DA Gama
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 29.4% | 26.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.9% | 29.4% | 26.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vasco DA Gama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 1.04.
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors match preview
Vasco DA Gama is set to face Boca Juniors in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, with kickoff scheduled for October 21, 2026. According to our model, Vasco DA Gama has a 44% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 29% and Boca Juniors at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Vasco, with an 11% prediction rate. Expected goals are calculated at 1.40 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.04 for Boca Juniors.
In terms of recent form, Vasco DA Gama has recorded four wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches, while Boca Juniors has a strong record with five wins and one draw in the same period. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 44%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 50%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Boca Juniors
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 43.9% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Boca Juniors | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors stats
Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
WWWWDL |
| Boca Juniors |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors season so far
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.