CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2026-10-21T00:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Semi-finals

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors

1 – 3 Full time

4′			Lautaro Di Lollo
34′			Miguel Merentiel
37′			Leandro Paredes
40′			Thiago Mendes
45′			DavidBrenner
45′			AdsonMarino Hinestroza
56′			Paulo HenriqueJose Luis Rodriguez
57′			Rodrigo BattagliaLeandro Paredes
66′			Jose Luis Rodriguez
77′			Leonel FloresAlan Velasco
77′			Miguel MerentielEnner Valencia
88′			Leandro Paredes
90′			Alan LescanoClaudio Spinelli
90′			Sebastián VillaAyrton Enrique Costa
90′			Alan Velasco

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de JaneiroReferee: Jesus Valenzuela

Vasco DA Gama

39%

Draw

29%

Boca Juniors

32%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
59	Possession %	41
5	Corners	5
8	Fouls	14
0	Offsides	2
0	Saves	1
474	Accurate passes	259

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Vasco DA Gama	Draw	Boca Juniors
Model	46.2%	30.7%	23.2%
Market	36.2%	29.1%	34.8%
Final	38.7%	29.5%	31.9%
Edge	+2.5%	+0.4%	-2.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Vasco DA Gama

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.87.
The market prices Vasco DA Gama below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

88%

2+ goals

66%

3+ goals

38%

No goals

12%

Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors expected goals

Vasco DA Gama

1.33

Boca Juniors

0.87

Total expected goals: 2.20

Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors attack and defence ratings

Vasco DA Gama

Attack

1.16 +16%

Defence

0.66 -34%

Boca Juniors

Attack

1.38 +38%

Defence

0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: result vs prediction

Vasco DA Gama 1 – 3 Boca Juniors

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Semi-finals fixtures

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama — match page · 2026-10-14
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats · 2026-10-14
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG · 2026-10-21

Before and after this match

Vasco DA Gama, previous: Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama analysis
Vasco DA Gama, next: Vasco DA Gama v Corinthians analysis
Boca Juniors, previous: Boca Juniors – Talleres Cordoba, 2026-10-17
Boca Juniors, next: Independiente vs Boca Juniors: odds and pick

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Vasco DA Gama	38.7%	2.59	+2.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	62.3%	1.61	—	—
Both teams to score	No	56.0%	1.79	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	70.5%	1.42	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	53.8%	1.86	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Vasco DA Gama	38.7%
	Draw	29.5%
	Boca Juniors	31.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37.7%
	Under 2.5	62.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	44.0%
	No	56.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	68.1%
	12 (either side)	70.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	61.3%
Handicap -1	Vasco DA Gama win	22.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.8%
	Loss	53.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.1%
	1-0	13.5%
	0-0	12.4%

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors stats

Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors recent form

newest first

Vasco DA Gama	LWDWWW
Boca Juniors	WLDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vasco DA Gama record

They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boca Juniors record

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1Vasco DA Gama wins 0Draws 0Boca Juniors wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-10-14	Boca Juniors	Vasco DA Gama	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 29.1%, away 34.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.74	3.26	2.86
Bet365	2.55	3.40	2.70
Betano	2.85	3.25	2.72
Betfair	2.55	3.25	2.63
Dafabet	2.70	3.25	2.75
Marathonbet	2.60	3.10	2.72
Pinnacle	2.63	3.25	2.81
William Hill	2.60	3.00	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 ▲ +0.07

X 3.25 —

2 2.72 —

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-14T16:10:02Z.