Fluminense
vs
Santos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fluminense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Fluminense vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fluminense vs Santos
| Probability | Fluminense | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 24.0% | 23.4% |
| Market | 41.9% | 27.5% | 30.6% |
| Final | 44.6% | 26.6% | 28.8% |
| Edge | +10.8% | -3.6% | -7.2% |
Why Fluminense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.25.
- The market prices Fluminense below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fluminense vs Santos match preview
Fluminense faces Santos in the Brazil Serie A, with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Fluminense has a 50% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw and a Santos victory stand at 26% and 24%, respectively. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Fluminense, with an expected goals tally of 2.05 for Fluminense and 1.11 for Santos.
Recent form shows Fluminense with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Santos has been more consistent, recording five wins and one draw in the same period. In their last three encounters, Fluminense has won twice and drawn once against Santos, indicating a favorable head-to-head record for Fluminense. The model suggests a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score.
Fluminense and Santos team news
Fluminense news
- Alisson — hip injury
- G. Cano — hamstring injury
- Guilherme Arana — yellow cards
- John Kennedy — knee injury
- Matheus Reis — knee injury
Santos news
- Arthur Melo — muscle injury
- Gabriel Brazao — shoulder injury
- Neymar — inactive
- Vinicius Lira — knee injury
- Willian Arao — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fluminense and Santos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Fluminense and Santos attack and defence ratings
Fluminense
Santos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fluminense vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 44.6% | 2.24 | +10.8% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 44.6% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Santos | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% |
| No | 37.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Fluminense vs Santos stats
Fluminense and Santos recent form
| Fluminense |
LLWWLL |
| Santos |
LDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fluminense and Santos season so far
Fluminense record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Santos | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Santos | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Fluminense | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-29 | Santos | Fluminense | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2023-07-29 | Fluminense | Santos | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-01 | Santos | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-09 | Fluminense | Santos | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-27 | Santos | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2021-06-17 | Fluminense | Santos | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2021-02-21 | Santos | Fluminense | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fluminense vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 27.5%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.48 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.38 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.45 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .