Fluminense
vs
Palmeiras
1 – 2 Full time
| 45′ | José Manuel López | ||
| 45′ | Matheus Martinelli LimaHércules Pereira do Nascimento | ||
| 49′ | Alexander Barboza | ||
| 63′ | Agustín CanobbioKevin Serna | ||
| 74′ | Andreas PereiraMaurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 74′ | José Manuel LópezRamon Sosa | ||
| 74′ | Jhon AriasFelipe Anderson | ||
| 78′ | Paulo Henrique Chagas de LimaLuciano Acosta | ||
| 78′ | HulkRodrigo Castillo | ||
| 84′ | Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroWesley Natã de Freitas Prado | ||
| 85′ | Marlon Freitas | ||
| 90′ | Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado | ||
| 90′ | Agustin Giay | ||
| 90′ | Maurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 90′ | Gustavo Nonato Santana |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 70 | Possession % | 30 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 731 | Accurate passes | 280 |
Fluminense vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Fluminense | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.0% | 30.6% | 34.3% |
| Market | 34.0% | 32.4% | 33.6% |
| Final | 34.3% | 31.9% | 33.8% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.4% | +0.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fluminense and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Fluminense and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras: result vs prediction
Fluminense 1 – 2 Palmeiras
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Fluminense vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 34.3% | 2.92 | +0.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 34.3% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Palmeiras | 33.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 63.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Fluminense vs Palmeiras stats
Fluminense and Palmeiras recent form
| Fluminense |
LWWLLW |
| Palmeiras |
WWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fluminense and Palmeiras going into this match
Fluminense record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-25 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-06 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-08 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 32.4%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 2.94 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 2.95 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.05 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.73 | 2.85 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 2.88 | 2.96 |
| SBO | 2.64 | 2.81 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .