Fluminense
vs
Palmeiras
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fluminense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Fluminense vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Fluminense | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 30.7% | 26.5% |
| Market | 32.4% | 32.4% | 35.2% |
| Final | 35.0% | 31.9% | 33.0% |
| Edge | +10.4% | -1.7% | -8.7% |
Why Fluminense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fluminense below the model: +10.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras match preview
Fluminense and Palmeiras are set to clash in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on October 13, 2026. According to our model, Fluminense has a 35% chance of winning, while Palmeiras and a draw are both at 33% and 32%, respectively. The expected goals for Fluminense stand at 1.30, compared to Palmeiras's 0.97. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Fluminense, occurring with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Fluminense has recorded three wins, one loss, and two more wins in their last six matches. Conversely, Palmeiras has achieved four wins, one draw, and one more draw in their recent outings. In their last four encounters, Fluminense has secured one win, while Palmeiras has two victories and one draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fluminense and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Fluminense and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Fluminense vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 35.0% | 2.86 | +10.4% | 3.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 35.0% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Palmeiras | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Fluminense vs Palmeiras stats
Fluminense and Palmeiras recent form
| Fluminense |
WWWLWW |
| Palmeiras |
WDWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fluminense and Palmeiras season so far
Fluminense record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 32.4%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.96 | 2.93 | 2.75 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 2.95 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 2.84 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 3.02 | 2.87 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.63 | 2.61 | 2.44 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 2.75 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .