Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Palmeiras
vs
Corinthians
4 – 1 Full time
| 9′ | Jhon Arias | ||
| 15′ | Raniele | ||
| 16′ | Alexander Barboza | ||
| 45′ | Agustin Giay | ||
| 46′ | Matheus Bidu | ||
| 48′ | Memphis Depay | ||
| 49′ | Agustin Giay | ||
| 51′ | Agustin Giay | ||
| 57′ | André CarrilloAllan | ||
| 57′ | Breno BidonVitinho | ||
| 59′ | Gabriel Paulista | ||
| 65′ | Vitinho | ||
| 69′ | José Manuel LópezMaurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 69′ | Lucas EvangelistaEmiliano Martínez | ||
| 69′ | Vitor RoqueRamon Sosa | ||
| 69′ | AndréAndré Ramalho | ||
| 69′ | Yuri AlbertoPedro Raul | ||
| 72′ | Gustavo Gómez | ||
| 77′ | Ramon SosaPaulo Henrique Sampaio Filho | ||
| 83′ | RanieleDieguinho | ||
| 83′ | Gustavo GómezBruno Fuchs | ||
| 90′ | Gustavo Henrique |
Palmeiras
61%
Draw
25%
Corinthians
15%
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 398 | Accurate passes | 314 |
Palmeiras vs Corinthians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 23.3% | 7.7% |
| Market | 57.7% | 25.3% | 17.0% |
| Final | 60.5% | 24.8% | 14.7% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.5% | -2.3% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
64%
3+ goals
36%
No goals
13%
Palmeiras and Corinthians expected goals
Palmeiras
1.64
Corinthians
0.48
Total expected goals: 2.12
Palmeiras and Corinthians attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
0.63 -37%
Corinthians
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 4 – 1 Corinthians
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Corinthians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 60.5% | 1.65 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 60.5% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Corinthians | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.8% |
| No | 70.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.6% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.9% |
| 2-0 | 17.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Palmeiras vs Corinthians stats
Palmeiras and Corinthians recent form
| Palmeiras |
WDLWWD |
| Corinthians |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Corinthians going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Palmeiras wins
4Draws
4Corinthians wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Palmeiras | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Palmeiras | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Palmeiras | Corinthians | Paulista - A1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-06 | Palmeiras | Corinthians | Paulista - A1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-04 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.7%, draw 25.3%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.76 | 5.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.65 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.74 | 5.98 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.40 | 4.72 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.64 ▲ +0.12
X
3.75 ▼ -0.22
2
5.57 ▼ -0.83
14 snapshots recorded, from .