Palmeiras
vs
Corinthians
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
Palmeiras vs Corinthians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 23.4% | 7.7% |
| Market | 59.2% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
| Final | 61.6% | 24.7% | 13.7% |
| Edge | +9.7% | -1.7% | -8.0% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.43.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians match preview
In the upcoming Brazil Serie A match, Palmeiras is set to face Corinthians. The model indicates a strong likelihood of a Palmeiras victory, assigning them a 63% probability of winning, while Corinthians stands at 13%. The expected goals for Palmeiras are 1.75, compared to just 0.45 for Corinthians, suggesting a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 18% probability.
Recent form highlights contrasting performances, as Palmeiras has recorded two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Corinthians has struggled with six consecutive winless games, including four losses. In their last five encounters, Palmeiras has secured one win, while Corinthians has two wins and two draws, indicating a competitive rivalry. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
Palmeiras and Corinthians team news
Palmeiras news
- Jefte — knee injury
- Paulinho — muscle injury
Corinthians news
- A. Carrillo — lacking match fitness
- Andre Ramalho — health problems
- Dieguinho — inactive
- Joao Pedro — inactive
- Kaio Cesar — yellow cards
- Kayke — knee injury
- R. Garro — yellow cards
- Z. Labyad — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and Corinthians expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Palmeiras and Corinthians attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Corinthians
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Corinthians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 61.6% | 1.62 | +9.7% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 41.6% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 61.6% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Corinthians | 13.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.8% |
| No | 70.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 41.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 31.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.9% |
| 2-0 | 17.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Palmeiras vs Corinthians stats
Palmeiras and Corinthians recent form
| Palmeiras |
WDWWWD |
| Corinthians |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Corinthians season so far
Palmeiras record
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Palmeiras | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Corinthians | Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Palmeiras | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.2%, draw 25.1%, away 15.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 3.78 | 6.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.69 | 6.22 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .