Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Coritiba
vs
Botafogo
1 – 1 Full time
| 22′ | Marçal | ||
| 34′ | Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira | ||
| 45′ | Allan | ||
| 45′ | Fabricio Bustos | ||
| 45′ | Sebastián Gómez | ||
| 52′ | Thiago Santos | ||
| 56′ | Fabricio BustosTinga | ||
| 56′ | Thiago SantosNicolas Fonseca | ||
| 64′ | Joaquin LavegaBreno Lopes | ||
| 64′ | Felipe JonatanRodrigo Silva Nascimento | ||
| 66′ | Marçal | ||
| 66′ | Tiago Coser | ||
| 73′ | Hakim Ziyechdomingos andrade | ||
| 74′ | AllanJúnior Santos | ||
| 77′ | Arthur CabralTiquinho Soares | ||
| 77′ | Cristian MedinaÁlvaro Montoro | ||
| 84′ | JosuéRenato Marques | ||
| 86′ | Matheus MartinsPaulinho | ||
| 88′ | Rodrigo Silva Nascimento |
Coritiba
38%
Draw
27%
Botafogo
35%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 276 | Accurate passes | 385 |
Coritiba vs Botafogo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Botafogo
| Probability | Coritiba | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| Market | 35.7% | 27.1% | 37.3% |
| Final | 38.5% | 26.6% | 35.0% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.5% | -2.3% |
Why Coritiba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Coritiba below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Coritiba and Botafogo expected goals
Coritiba
1.80
Botafogo
1.36
Total expected goals: 3.17
Coritiba and Botafogo attack and defence ratings
Coritiba
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
1.62 +62%
Botafogo
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Coritiba vs Botafogo: result vs prediction
Coritiba 1 – 1 Botafogo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coritiba vs Botafogo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 38.5% | 2.60 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 38.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Botafogo | 35.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coritiba win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Coritiba vs Botafogo stats
Coritiba and Botafogo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coritiba and Botafogo going into this match
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Coritiba wins
3Draws
6Botafogo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Botafogo | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-30 | Coritiba | Botafogo | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-30 | Botafogo | Coritiba | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2022-09-17 | Botafogo | Coritiba | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-05-29 | Coritiba | Botafogo | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2021-08-28 | Coritiba | Botafogo | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2021-06-06 | Botafogo | Coritiba | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2020-12-20 | Coritiba | Botafogo | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2020-09-02 | Botafogo | Coritiba | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2017-09-24 | Coritiba | Botafogo | Serie A | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Coritiba vs Botafogo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 27.1%, away 37.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.57 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 3.46 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.72 | 3.54 | 2.61 |
| SBO | 2.43 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.64 ▲ +0.05
X
3.48 ▲ +0.12
2
2.52 ▼ -0.07
14 snapshots recorded, from .