Coritiba
vs
Botafogo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coritiba
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Coritiba vs Botafogo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Botafogo
| Probability | Coritiba | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 25.1% | 28.2% |
| Market | 36.2% | 27.3% | 36.6% |
| Final | 38.8% | 26.7% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +10.6% | -2.2% | -8.4% |
Why Coritiba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Coritiba below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Coritiba vs Botafogo match preview
Coritiba faces Botafogo in a Brazil Serie A clash, with Coritiba holding a 40% probability of victory compared to Botafogo's 33% and a 27% chance of a draw. The match is expected to be competitive, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 in favor of Coritiba, occurring at a 10% probability. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 63% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, Coritiba has recorded a mixed bag of results with L-D-L-W-W-D, while Botafogo's form has been less favorable at L-W-D-D-L-L. The expected goals metrics indicate Coritiba at 1.94 and Botafogo at 1.30, suggesting a stronger offensive output from Coritiba. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either team, with one draw in their last encounter, underscoring the competitive nature of this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coritiba and Botafogo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Coritiba and Botafogo attack and defence ratings
Coritiba
Botafogo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coritiba vs Botafogo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 38.8% | 2.58 | +10.6% | 2.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 38.8% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Botafogo | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coritiba win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Coritiba vs Botafogo stats
Coritiba and Botafogo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coritiba and Botafogo season so far
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Botafogo | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Coritiba vs Botafogo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 27.3%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.49 | 2.61 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.38 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 3.53 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .