Brazil Serie A · 2026-10-07T23:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 29

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama

1 – 2 Full time

28′			Alan Lescano
42′			Bruno Duarte Da SilvaDavid
51′			David
57′			Cristian MedinaJúnior Santos
60′			Alex Telles
65′			Alan LescanoTchê Tchê
65′			Marino HinestrozaAdson
69′			Matheus MartinsKauan Toledo
80′			VitinhoMateo Ponte
80′			Hakim ZiyechKadir Barría
80′			Arthur CabralTiquinho Soares
85′			Adenor Leonardo Bacchi
88′			Paulo HenriqueJose Luis Rodriguez
88′			Facundo ColidioNuno Moreira
90′			Nahuel Ferraresi

Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de JaneiroReferee: Bruno Arleu

Botafogo

28%

Draw

27%

Vasco DA Gama

45%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

11	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	8
45	Possession %	55
7	Corners	14
10	Fouls	12
3	Offsides	2
5	Saves	1
297	Accurate passes	367

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Botafogo	Draw	Vasco DA Gama
Model	17.3%	26.8%	56.0%
Market	31.8%	27.3%	40.8%
Final	28.2%	27.2%	44.6%
Edge	-14.6%	-0.5%	+15.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Vasco DA Gama

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.81.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Vasco DA Gama below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

90%

2+ goals

71%

3+ goals

44%

No goals

10%

Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

Botafogo

0.81

Vasco DA Gama

1.64

Total expected goals: 2.45

Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings

Botafogo

Attack

0.83 -17%

Defence

1.19 +19%

Vasco DA Gama

Attack

1.30 +30%

Defence

0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: result vs prediction

Botafogo 1 – 2 Vasco DA Gama

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Internacional v Corinthians — match page · 2026-10-07
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol · 2026-10-07
Remo v Gremio — match page · 2026-10-07
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc — team news & stats · 2026-10-07
Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo — match page · 2026-10-08
Santos vs Flamengo — team news & stats · 2026-10-08
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG · 2026-10-08
Palmeiras vs Bahia · 2026-10-09

Before and after this match

Botafogo, previous: Mirassol v Botafogo analysis
Botafogo, next: Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction
Vasco DA Gama, previous: Vasco DA Gama – Coritiba, 2026-09-19
Vasco DA Gama, next: Vasco DA Gama vs Remo: odds and pick

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Vasco DA Gama	44.6%	2.24	+15.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	55.5%	1.80	—	—
Both teams to score	No	54.0%	1.85	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.8%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	44.2%	2.26	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Botafogo	28.2%
	Draw	27.2%
	Vasco DA Gama	44.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44.5%
	Under 2.5	55.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	46.0%
	No	54.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	55.4%
	12 (either side)	72.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	71.8%
Handicap -1	Vasco DA Gama win	31.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.7%
	Loss	44.2%
Correct score (top 3)	0-1	13.0%
	1-1	12.6%
	0-2	11.6%

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama stats

Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama recent form

newest first

Botafogo	LWDDLL
Vasco DA Gama	WWWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama going into this match

league record before kick-off

Botafogo record

They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vasco DA Gama record

They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Botafogo wins 3Draws 3Vasco DA Gama wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-05	Vasco DA Gama	Botafogo	Brazil Serie A	1-2
2026-02-08	Vasco DA Gama	Botafogo	Carioca - 1	2-0
2025-11-05	Botafogo	Vasco DA Gama	Brazil Serie A	3-0
2025-09-12	Botafogo	Vasco DA Gama	Copa Do Brasil	1-1
2025-08-28	Vasco DA Gama	Botafogo	Copa Do Brasil	1-1
2025-07-12	Vasco DA Gama	Botafogo	Brazil Serie A	0-2
2025-02-23	Vasco DA Gama	Botafogo	Carioca - 1	1-0
2024-11-06	Botafogo	Vasco DA Gama	Serie A	3-0
2024-06-29	Vasco DA Gama	Botafogo	Serie A	1-1
2024-02-18	Botafogo	Vasco DA Gama	Carioca - 1	2-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 27.3%, away 40.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.14	3.54	2.27
Bet365	3.00	3.40	2.30
BetVictor	2.90	3.50	2.30
Betano	2.95	3.60	2.32
Betfair	2.90	3.40	2.30
Marathonbet	3.04	3.44	2.20
Pinnacle	3.07	3.60	2.32
SBO	2.76	3.17	2.21
William Hill	2.90	3.30	2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.95 ▲ +0.40

X 3.44 ▲ +0.19

2 2.30 ▼ -0.37

46 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-15T08:10:02Z.