Brazil Serie A · 2026-09-19T23:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 28

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba

5 – 0 Full time

24′			Facundo Colidio
44′			Bruno Duarte Da Silva
45′			FabinhoPaulo Roberto
45′			Vitor Gonçalves TissiFabricio Bustos
45′			Thiago SantosNicolas Fonseca
56′			Alan Lescano
61′			Paulo Roberto
63′			Andrés Gómez
64′			Andrés Gómez
65′			Pedro RochaRodrigo Silva Nascimento
71′			Andrés GómezMarino Hinestroza
71′			Alan LescanoRamon Rique Santos De Souza Barros
73′			Ramon Rique Santos De Souza Barros
75′			Nicolas Fonseca
76′			Santiago SosaJohan Rojas
77′			Thiago MendesJair
77′			Facundo ColidioDavid
77′			Joaquin LavegaVini Paulista

São Januário, Rio de JaneiroReferee: Braulio da Silva Machado

Vasco DA Gama

65%

Draw

22%

Coritiba

13%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

32	Shots	4
11	Shots on target	1
65	Possession %	35
12	Corners	2
7	Fouls	8
0	Offsides	1
1	Saves	6
527	Accurate passes	249

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Vasco DA Gama	Draw	Coritiba
Model	63.0%	22.6%	14.4%
Market	65.2%	21.6%	13.2%
Final	64.7%	21.8%	13.5%
Edge	-2.2%	+1.0%	+1.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Vasco DA Gama

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.87.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

79%

3+ goals

55%

No goals

Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba expected goals

Vasco DA Gama

2.01

Coritiba

0.87

Total expected goals: 2.88

Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba attack and defence ratings

Vasco DA Gama

Attack

1.03 +3%

Defence

0.69 -31%

Coritiba

Attack

1.19 +19%

Defence

1.28 +28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba: result vs prediction

Vasco DA Gama 5 – 0 Coritiba

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-sc — match page · 2026-09-19
Mirassol vs Botafogo · 2026-09-19
Remo vs Santos — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Sao Paulo vs Internacional · 2026-09-20
Gremio vs Palmeiras — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
Corinthians vs Fluminense · 2026-09-20
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro · 2026-09-20
Flamengo v RB Bragantino — match page · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

Vasco DA Gama, previous: Vasco DA Gama vs Santa Fe prediction
Vasco DA Gama, next: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction
Coritiba, previous: Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense analysis
Coritiba, next: Fluminense v Coritiba analysis

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Vasco DA Gama	64.7%	1.55	-2.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.8%	1.82	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	51.1%	1.96	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	86.5%	1.16	—	—
Handicap -1	Vasco DA Gama win	39.5%	2.53	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Vasco DA Gama	64.7%
	Draw	21.8%
	Coritiba	13.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.8%
	Under 2.5	45.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	51.1%
	No	48.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	86.5%
	12 (either side)	78.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	35.3%
Handicap -1	Vasco DA Gama win	39.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.5%
	Loss	37.0%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	11.4%
	1-1	10.8%
	1-0	10.4%

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba stats

Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba recent form

newest first

Vasco DA Gama	WWDLWW
Coritiba	DLWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vasco DA Gama record

They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coritiba record

They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Vasco DA Gama wins 6Draws 2Coritiba wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-01	Coritiba	Vasco DA Gama	Brazil Serie A	1-1
2023-09-21	Vasco DA Gama	Coritiba	Serie A	5-1
2023-05-11	Coritiba	Vasco DA Gama	Serie A	1-1
2021-10-16	Vasco DA Gama	Coritiba	Serie B	2-1
2021-07-14	Coritiba	Vasco DA Gama	Serie B	1-1
2021-01-17	Vasco DA Gama	Coritiba	Serie A	0-1
2020-09-20	Coritiba	Vasco DA Gama	Serie A	1-0
2017-10-21	Vasco DA Gama	Coritiba	Serie A	1-1
2017-07-02	Coritiba	Vasco DA Gama	Serie A	2-2
2015-12-06	Coritiba	Vasco DA Gama	Serie A	0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.6%, draw 22.9%, away 14.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.53	4.23	6.61
Bet365	1.50	4.10	7.50
BetVictor	1.50	4.10	6.50
Betano	1.55	4.20	7.20
Betfair	1.47	3.90	6.50
Marathonbet	1.48	4.10	6.40
Pinnacle	1.47	4.44	7.26
SBO	1.47	3.64	5.22
William Hill	1.50	3.90	5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.47 ▼ -0.33

X 4.44 ▲ +0.97

2 7.26 ▲ +2.73

18 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-11T08:10:02Z.