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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 27

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense

3 – 3 Full time

14′Luiz Gustavo
28′Joaquin Lavega
30′Arthur Dias
34′Jacy
34′Kevin Viveros
43′João Victor Machado Cruz
45′Breno Lopes
45′Tiago Coser
45′João Vitor Silva Dantas de Oliveira
45′JP Chermont
45′Pedro Rocha
45′Gaston Americo BenavidezGilberto
45′João Victor Machado CruzCarlos Teran
45′Bruno MeloRichard
45′Pedro RochaRodrigo Rodrigues
45′Joaquin LavegaPaulo Roberto
45′JP ChermontRodrigo Moledo
45′João Vitor Silva Dantas de OliveiraAntonio Feliphe Costa Silva
63′Kevin Viveros
67′Kevin ViverosRenan Peixoto Nepomuceno
74′Thiago SantosRodrigo Silva Nascimento
90′Rodrigo Moledo
90′Luiz Gustavo
90′Stiven MendozaJuan Portilla
90′Rodrigo Moledo

Estádio Couto Pereira, CuritibaReferee: Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes

Coritiba 34%
Draw 29%
Atletico Paranaense 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 5
61 Possession % 39
8 Corners 3
15 Fouls 23
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 2
121 Accurate passes 72

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCoritibaDrawAtletico Paranaense
Model44.8%25.3%29.9%
Market29.9%29.8%40.3%
Final33.6%28.7%37.7%
Edge+14.9%-4.5%-10.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Coritiba ↓ / Atletico Paran → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense expected goals

Coritiba 1.76
Atletico Paranaense 1.41

Total expected goals: 3.17

Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings

Coritiba

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Atletico Paranaense

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense: result vs prediction

Coritiba 3 – 3 Atletico Paranaense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Paranaense 37.7% 2.65 -10.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.3% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.6% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.3% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.1% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Coritiba33.6%
Draw28.7%
Atletico Paranaense37.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
Both teams to scoreYes63.6%
No36.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.3%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)66.4%
Handicap -1Atletico Paranaense win13.9%
Push (exactly one goal)16.0%
Loss70.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.2%
1-27.4%

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense stats

Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense recent form

newest first
Coritiba LWWDWL
Atletico Paranaense LDWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense going into this match

league record before kick-off

Coritiba record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Paranaense record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Coritiba wins 4Draws 3Atletico Paranaense wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22Atletico ParanaenseCoritibaBrazil Serie A2-0
2026-01-17Atletico ParanaenseCoritibaParanaense - 10-1
2025-10-19CoritibaAtletico ParanaenseBrazil Serie B0-0
2025-06-28Atletico ParanaenseCoritibaBrazil Serie B0-1
2025-01-25CoritibaAtletico ParanaenseParanaense - 10-0
2024-02-18CoritibaAtletico ParanaenseParanaense - 11-1
2023-10-01CoritibaAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-0
2023-05-14Atletico ParanaenseCoritibaSerie A3-2
2023-02-05Atletico ParanaenseCoritibaParanaense - 11-1
2022-10-16Atletico ParanaenseCoritibaSerie A1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.9%, draw 29.8%, away 40.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.19 3.19 2.41
Bet365 3.25 3.20 2.35
BetVictor 3.13 3.20 2.30
Marathonbet 3.10 3.10 2.34
Pinnacle 3.30 3.15 2.40
William Hill 3.10 2.90 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.16 ▲ +0.46
X 3.17 ▲ +0.17
2 2.34 ▼ -0.36

14 snapshots recorded, from .