Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Atletico-MG
vs
Fluminense
3 – 1 Full time
| 19′ | Alan Franco | ||
| 52′ | Otávio Henrique Passos Santos | ||
| 61′ | Luciano AcostaHércules Pereira do Nascimento | ||
| 61′ | Agustín CanobbioKevin Serna | ||
| 61′ | Reinier Jesus Carvalho | ||
| 63′ | Tomás Cuello | ||
| 65′ | Alan FrancoMaycon de Andrade Barberan | ||
| 65′ | Kevin CastañoMamady Cisse | ||
| 69′ | Rodrigo Castillo | ||
| 70′ | Tomás CuelloIgor Gomes | ||
| 70′ | Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteGustavo Scarpa | ||
| 72′ | Otávio Henrique Passos SantosPaulo Henrique Chagas de Lima | ||
| 72′ | Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroRiquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida | ||
| 78′ | Reinier Jesus CarvalhoMateo Cassierra | ||
| 81′ | Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira | ||
| 90′ | Rodrigo Castillo | ||
| 90′ | Julio César Lima FidelisJemmes Bruno Ribeiro Da Silva |
Atletico-MG
45%
Draw
30%
Fluminense
26%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 433 | Accurate passes | 470 |
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 31.0% | 22.6% |
| Market | 43.9% | 29.1% | 27.0% |
| Final | 44.5% | 29.6% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +2.0% | -4.4% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.84.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
36%
No goals
13%
Atletico-MG and Fluminense expected goals
Atletico-MG
1.31
Fluminense
0.84
Total expected goals: 2.15
Atletico-MG and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
0.72 -28%
Fluminense
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense: result vs prediction
Atletico-MG 3 – 1 Fluminense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 44.5% | 2.25 | +2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 44.5% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Fluminense | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense stats
Atletico-MG and Fluminense recent form
| Atletico-MG |
WLWWDD |
| Fluminense |
WWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Fluminense going into this match
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Atletico-MG wins
2Draws
4Fluminense wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Fluminense | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Fluminense | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Atletico-MG | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-25 | Atletico-MG | Fluminense | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-18 | Fluminense | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-25 | Atletico-MG | Fluminense | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-04 | Fluminense | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-29 | Atletico-MG | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-22 | Fluminense | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-01 | Atletico-MG | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 29.1%, away 27.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.34 | 3.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.24 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.30 | 3.74 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.06 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.15 ▼ -0.10
X
3.25 ▲ +0.05
2
3.50 ▲ +0.37
16 snapshots recorded, from .