Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Santos
vs
Cruzeiro
2 – 1 Full time
| 28′ | Benjamín Rollheiser | ||
| 32′ | Fabrício Bruno | ||
| 45′ | Kaio Jorge | ||
| 45′ | Lucas RomerWesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira | ||
| 61′ | Gustavo HenriqueChristian Oliva | ||
| 65′ | Everton | ||
| 74′ | Benjamín RollheiserVinicius Moreira de Lima | ||
| 74′ | EvertonArthur Melo | ||
| 74′ | Matheus HenriqueLucas Silva | ||
| 75′ | FagnerJoao Costa | ||
| 75′ | GersonZé Lucas | ||
| 79′ | João Marcelo | ||
| 79′ | Keny arroyoLuciano Rodríguez | ||
| 81′ | Gabriel BontempoMiguelito | ||
| 81′ | RonyThaciano | ||
| 82′ | Gabriel Brazão | ||
| 90′ | Matheus Pereira | ||
| 90′ | Fabrício Bruno |
Santos
36%
Draw
28%
Cruzeiro
36%
Match stats
| 31 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 8 |
| 444 | Accurate passes | 394 |
Santos vs Cruzeiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santos vs Cruzeiro
| Probability | Santos | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 29.4% | 28.0% |
| Market | 34.0% | 27.6% | 38.3% |
| Final | 36.2% | 28.1% | 35.7% |
| Edge | +8.6% | +1.8% | -10.4% |
Why Santos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Santos below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
Santos and Cruzeiro expected goals
Santos
1.38
Cruzeiro
1.08
Total expected goals: 2.46
Santos and Cruzeiro attack and defence ratings
Santos
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Cruzeiro
Attack
1.13 +13%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Santos vs Cruzeiro: result vs prediction
Santos 2 – 1 Cruzeiro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense
- Gremio v Vasco DA Gama — match page
- Atletico-MG v Fluminense — match page
- Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional — team news & stats
- Palmeiras v Sao Paulo — match page
- Botafogo vs RB Bragantino
- Mirassol vs Vitoria — team news & stats
- Flamengo vs Corinthians — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Santos vs Cruzeiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 36.2% | 2.76 | +8.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 36.2% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Cruzeiro | 35.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Santos vs Cruzeiro stats
Santos and Cruzeiro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santos and Cruzeiro going into this match
Santos record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Santos wins
1Draws
5Cruzeiro wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Cruzeiro | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Santos | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Cruzeiro | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-14 | Santos | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2023-05-06 | Cruzeiro | Santos | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2019-11-24 | Santos | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2019-08-18 | Cruzeiro | Santos | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2018-09-23 | Cruzeiro | Santos | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2018-08-15 | Cruzeiro | Santos | Copa Do Brasil | 1-2 |
| 2018-08-01 | Santos | Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santos vs Cruzeiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 28.1%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.42 | 2.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.76 | 3.32 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 3.43 | 2.52 |
| SBO | 2.72 | 3.18 | 2.33 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.76 ▲ +0.36
X
3.40 ▲ +0.10
2
2.45 ▼ -0.36
16 snapshots recorded, from .