Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Palmeiras
vs
Sao Paulo
2 – 0 Full time
| 12′ | Pablo Maia | ||
| 39′ | Luis Osorio Messias De Oliveira | ||
| 45′ | Murilo Cerqueira Paim | ||
| 45′ | Gustavo Gómez | ||
| 45′ | Agustin Giay | ||
| 45′ | Joaquín PiquerezArthur Gabriel | ||
| 45′ | Agustin GiayKhellven Douglas Silva Oliveira | ||
| 45′ | Cauly Oliveira SouzaRobert Arboleda | ||
| 50′ | Vitor Roque | ||
| 64′ | Andre SilvaArtur Victor Guimarães | ||
| 64′ | WendellIago Amaral Borduchi | ||
| 64′ | Djhordney FerreiraDanielzinho | ||
| 67′ | Lucas EvangelistaLuis Pacheco | ||
| 67′ | Jhon AriasFelipe Anderson | ||
| 76′ | Murilo Cerqueira Paim | ||
| 76′ | Aldemir FerreiraTetê | ||
| 77′ | José Manuel LópezLarson Torna Ferreira dos Santos | ||
| 85′ | Larson Torna Ferreira dos Santos |
Palmeiras
56%
Draw
27%
Sao Paulo
17%
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 457 | Accurate passes | 336 |
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.0% | 30.0% | 15.0% |
| Market | 56.8% | 25.3% | 17.9% |
| Final | 56.3% | 26.5% | 17.1% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +4.7% | -2.9% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.60.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Palmeiras and Sao Paulo expected goals
Palmeiras
1.38
Sao Paulo
0.60
Total expected goals: 1.98
Palmeiras and Sao Paulo attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.61 -39%
Sao Paulo
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 2 – 0 Sao Paulo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 56.3% | 1.77 | -1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 56.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Sao Paulo | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.0% |
| No | 65.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.9% | |
| 2-0 | 13.2% |
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo stats
Palmeiras and Sao Paulo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Sao Paulo going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
7Palmeiras wins
3Draws
0Sao Paulo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Sao Paulo | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Palmeiras | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Palmeiras | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Sao Paulo | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | Palmeiras | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-11 | Palmeiras | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Palmeiras | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Palmeiras | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-29 | Sao Paulo | Palmeiras | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-03 | Sao Paulo | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 25.3%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.78 | 5.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.68 | 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.83 | 5.56 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.65 ▼ -0.02
X
3.70 —
2
5.25 ▲ +0.25
16 snapshots recorded, from .