Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Flamengo
vs
Corinthians
2 – 1 Full time
| 37′ | Charles | ||
| 48′ | Lucas Paquetá | ||
| 50′ | Lucas Paquetá | ||
| 67′ | DieguinhoKaio César | ||
| 67′ | Pedro MilansMatheuzinho | ||
| 67′ | CharlesBreno Bidon | ||
| 67′ | Fabrizio AngileriMatheus Bidu | ||
| 73′ | Matheus PereiraRodrigo Garro | ||
| 74′ | PedroBruno Henrique | ||
| 74′ | Ayrton LucasAlex Sandro | ||
| 78′ | Gui Negão | ||
| 79′ | Giorgian de ArrascaetaJorginho | ||
| 79′ | Gonzalo PlataJorge Carrascal | ||
| 86′ | Lucas PaquetáJoaquín Freitas | ||
| 87′ | Breno Bidon | ||
| 89′ | Bruno Henrique | ||
| 90′ | Erick Pulgar | ||
| 90′ | Rodrigo Garro | ||
| 90′ | Jorginho |
Flamengo
75%
Draw
18%
Corinthians
7%
Match stats
| 32 | Shots | 3 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 20 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 7 |
| 605 | Accurate passes | 323 |
Flamengo vs Corinthians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Corinthians
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.7% | 21.6% | 7.7% |
| Market | 76.3% | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Final | 74.9% | 17.7% | 7.4% |
| Edge | -5.6% | +5.1% | +0.5% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Flamengo and Corinthians expected goals
Flamengo
1.90
Corinthians
0.49
Total expected goals: 2.38
Flamengo and Corinthians attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Attack
1.43 +43%
Defence
0.57 -43%
Corinthians
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
0.87 -13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Flamengo vs Corinthians: result vs prediction
Flamengo 2 – 1 Corinthians
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Corinthians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 74.9% | 1.34 | -5.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 74.9% |
| Draw | 17.7% | |
| Corinthians | 7.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.6% |
| No | 66.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 44.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 29.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.7% |
| 2-0 | 16.6% | |
| 3-0 | 10.5% |
Flamengo vs Corinthians stats
Flamengo and Corinthians recent form
| Flamengo |
WWWWLW |
| Corinthians |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Corinthians going into this match
Flamengo record
- They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Flamengo wins
3Draws
2Corinthians wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Corinthians | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Flamengo | Corinthians | Supercopa do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Corinthians | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Flamengo | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Corinthians | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-03 | Flamengo | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Corinthians | Flamengo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-11 | Flamengo | Corinthians | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Corinthians | Flamengo | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-21 | Flamengo | Corinthians | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Corinthians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.6%, draw 16.9%, away 7.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.39 | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 6.08 | 13.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.27 | 6.00 | 13.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 5.70 | 13.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 5.91 | 13.06 |
| SBO | 1.30 | 4.22 | 7.43 |
| Unibet | 1.46 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.24 ▼ -0.16
X
5.75 ▲ +1.55
2
13.00 ▲ +5.00
18 snapshots recorded, from .