CONMEBOL Libertadores
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Flamengo
vs
Independiente del Valle
1 – 1 Full time
| 31′ | Djorkaeff Reascos | ||
| 53′ | Lucas Paquetá | ||
| 55′ | Jorginho | ||
| 58′ | Mateo Carabajal | ||
| 59′ | Lucas PaquetáGiorgian de Arrascaeta | ||
| 59′ | Jorge CarrascalGonzalo Plata | ||
| 65′ | Jorginho | ||
| 70′ | Bruno HenriqueSaúl Ñíguez | ||
| 75′ | Djorkaeff ReascosYandri Vásquez | ||
| 80′ | Erick Pulgar | ||
| 83′ | Matias Mijail PerelloRonald Briones | ||
| 83′ | Giorgian de Arrascaeta | ||
| 89′ | Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezSteven Daniel Góngora Palacios | ||
| 90′ | Samuel LinoGuillermo Varela | ||
| 90′ | Nicolas De la Cruz |
Flamengo
71%
Draw
18%
Independiente del Valle
11%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 411 | Accurate passes | 346 |
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.9% | 17.8% | 11.3% |
| Market | 70.6% | 18.1% | 11.4% |
| Final | 70.7% | 18.0% | 11.4% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
Flamengo and Independiente del Valle expected goals
Flamengo
2.53
Independiente del Valle
0.95
Total expected goals: 3.49
Flamengo and Independiente del Valle attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Attack
1.62 +62%
Defence
0.61 -39%
Independiente del Valle
Attack
1.72 +72%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle: result vs prediction
Flamengo 1 – 1 Independiente del Valle
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 70.7% | 1.42 | +0.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 70.7% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Independiente del Valle | 11.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 49.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 29.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 3-0 | 8.3% |
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle stats
Flamengo and Independiente del Valle recent form
| Flamengo |
WWWWWL |
| Independiente del Valle |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Independiente del Valle going into this match
Flamengo record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
4Flamengo wins
1Draws
2Independiente del Valle wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-2 |
| 2023-03-01 | Flamengo | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Recopa | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-22 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Recopa | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-01 | Flamengo | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 4-0 |
| 2020-09-18 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 5-0 |
| 2020-02-27 | Flamengo | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Recopa | 3-0 |
| 2020-02-20 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Recopa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.6%, draw 18.1%, away 11.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.35 | 5.25 | 8.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 5.20 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 5.33 | 8.68 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.78 | 7.34 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.33 ▼ -0.02
X
5.20 ▲ +0.25
2
8.25 ▲ +0.32
12 snapshots recorded, from .