Liga Pro
·
Full time
·Championship Group - 2
Independiente del Valle
vs
Aucas
2 – 1 Full time
| 33′ | Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo | ||
| 34′ | Junior Sornoza | ||
| 56′ | Hugo Quintana | ||
| 59′ | Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezSteven Daniel Góngora Palacios | ||
| 59′ | Carlos GonzálezDjorkaeff Reascos | ||
| 65′ | Hugo Quintana | ||
| 67′ | Junior SornozaRonald Briones | ||
| 68′ | Luis ArroyoMaverick Vera | ||
| 68′ | Byron Yardel Carabalí DelgadoB. Oyola | ||
| 74′ | Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios | ||
| 79′ | Andres MenaCristhoper Zambrano | ||
| 79′ | Ayrton PreciadoAlexander Bolaños | ||
| 86′ | Matias Mijail PerelloEdwin Quintero | ||
| 86′ | Hugo QuintanaJhegson Mendez Carabali | ||
| 90′ | Alex Rodrigo Zova Cacierra | ||
| 90′ | Santiago Morales |
Independiente del Valle
60%
Draw
24%
Aucas
17%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 0 |
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
| Probability | Independiente del Valle | Draw | Aucas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 26.6% | 20.7% |
| Market | 61.9% | 22.9% | 15.2% |
| Final | 59.6% | 23.8% | 16.6% |
| Edge | -2.3% | +0.9% | +1.4% |
Why Independiente del Valle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.97.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
49%
No goals
8%
Independiente del Valle and Aucas expected goals
Independiente del Valle
1.67
Aucas
0.97
Total expected goals: 2.64
Independiente del Valle and Aucas attack and defence ratings
Independiente del Valle
Attack
1.52 +52%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Aucas
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas: result vs prediction
Independiente del Valle 2 – 1 Aucas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 59.6% | 1.68 | -2.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 59.6% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Aucas | 16.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 2-0 | 10.0% |
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas stats
Independiente del Valle and Aucas recent form
| Independiente del Valle |
DWLWLD |
| Aucas |
LDDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente del Valle and Aucas going into this match
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 24 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aucas record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Independiente del Valle wins
2Draws
2Aucas wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-28 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-01 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-24 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-11 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-02 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Supercopa de Ecuador | 3-0 |
| 2022-07-23 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.9%, draw 22.9%, away 15.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 3.96 | 6.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 3.78 | 5.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.30 | 6.15 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 3.79 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.47 —
X
3.98 ▼ -0.02
2
6.00 ▼ -0.26
38 snapshots recorded, from .