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Liga Pro · ·Championship Group - 2

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas

Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente del Valle

1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability

Bet on Independiente del Valle

Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, QuitoReferee: Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano

Independiente del Valle 59%
Draw 24%
Aucas 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Independiente del Valle wins
59%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
52%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
11% of simulated outcomes

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Aucas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente del ValleDrawAucas
Model52.6%26.6%20.8%
Market60.9%22.7%16.4%
Final58.8%23.7%17.5%
Edge-8.3%+3.9%+4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente del Valle

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.97.

Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas match preview

Independiente del Valle enters the match against Aucas with a 59% probability of winning, while Aucas has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Both teams have a near-equal chance of scoring, with 52% for both teams to score and a 49% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.

Recent form shows Independiente del Valle with mixed results, recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Aucas has seen a slight improvement, with two wins and four draws in their last six encounters. Historically, Independiente del Valle has dominated their recent meetings, winning three out of the last four matchups against Aucas, who has yet to secure a win in this period.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Aucas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Independiente del Valle and Aucas expected goals

Independiente del Valle 1.67
Aucas 0.97

Total expected goals: 2.64

Independiente del Valle and Aucas attack and defence ratings

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Aucas

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 58.8% 1.70 -8.3% 1.55
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.7% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.7% 1.94 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.5% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.3% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente del Valle58.8%
Draw23.7%
Aucas17.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%
Both teams to scoreYes51.7%
No48.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.5%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)41.2%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win29.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss47.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
1-010.7%
2-09.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas stats

Independiente del Valle and Aucas recent form

newest first
Independiente del Valle DWLWLD
Aucas LDDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente del Valle and Aucas season so far

league record

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 24 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aucas record

  • They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Independiente del Valle wins 2Draws 2Aucas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-16AucasIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-3
2026-03-14Independiente del ValleAucasLiga Pro2-2
2025-07-19Independiente del ValleAucasLiga Pro2-1
2025-03-28AucasIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-2
2024-09-01AucasIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-2
2024-03-24Independiente del ValleAucasLiga Pro1-1
2023-11-11AucasIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro2-0
2023-06-02Independiente del ValleAucasLiga Pro2-0
2023-02-11Independiente del ValleAucasSupercopa de Ecuador3-0
2022-07-23AucasIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.9%, draw 22.7%, away 16.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.53 3.96 6.17
Bet365 1.53 4.10 5.75
BetVictor 1.40 3.50 4.80
Betano 1.55 4.10 5.60
Betfair 1.47 4.10 5.50
Dafabet 1.52 4.20 5.60
Marathonbet 1.46 3.78 5.90
Pinnacle 1.51 4.17 5.83
SBO 1.44 3.61 5.03
William Hill 1.50 3.70 5.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▲ +0.03
X 4.03 ▲ +0.03
2 5.60 ▼ -0.66

36 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Independiente del Valle Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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