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Liga Pro · Full time ·Championship Group - 2

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC

2 – 1 Full time

39′Jesús Pretell
51′Bryan Carabali
53′Fernando Cornejo
57′Gian Franco Allala
60′Johan GarciaJhonny Quinonez
67′Bryan CarabaliJandry Gomez
67′Jefferson WilaDarío Benedetto
72′Leonel QuinonezJose Carabali
72′Lucas RodriguezAlexander Alvarado
73′Janner CorozoElvis Kevin Velasco Chere
78′Damián DíazTomás Martínez
78′Tomás RodríguezSergio Díaz
79′Jhonny Quinonez
80′José Contreras
81′Alexander Alvarado
83′Alexander Alvarado
83′Christian Javier Báez
90′Fernando CornejoSebastián González
90′Michael EstradaDeyverson
90′William Vargas
90′Deyverson

Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, QuitoReferee: Yerson Zambrano

LDU de Quito 55%
Draw 26%
Barcelona SC 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 4
55 Possession % 45
8 Corners 6

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLDU de QuitoDrawBarcelona SC
Model41.4%33.1%25.5%
Market59.7%24.0%16.2%
Final55.1%26.3%18.6%
Edge-4.6%+2.3%+2.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why LDU de Quito

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

LDU de Quito ↓ / Barcelona SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 9% 1 15% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC expected goals

LDU de Quito 1.23
Barcelona SC 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.01

LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC attack and defence ratings

LDU de Quito

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Barcelona SC

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC: result vs prediction

LDU de Quito 2 – 1 Barcelona SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 LDU de Quito 55.1% 1.81 -4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.8% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score No 59.7% 1.67 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.5% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2LDU de Quito55.1%
Draw26.3%
Barcelona SC18.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.2%
Under 2.567.8%
Both teams to scoreYes40.3%
No59.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.4%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)44.9%
Handicap -1LDU de Quito win21.0%
Push (exactly one goal)24.5%
Loss54.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-014.9%
1-114.5%
1-014.3%

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC stats

LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC recent form

newest first
LDU de Quito WWDLWD
Barcelona SC DDWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

LDU de Quito record

  • They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Barcelona SC record

  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5LDU de Quito wins 1Draws 4Barcelona SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-27Barcelona SCLDU de QuitoLiga Pro0-1
2026-04-04LDU de QuitoBarcelona SCLiga Pro0-2
2025-11-23Barcelona SCLDU de QuitoLiga Pro2-2
2025-10-18LDU de QuitoBarcelona SCLiga Pro3-0
2025-07-25Barcelona SCLDU de QuitoLiga Pro0-1
2025-06-19LDU de QuitoBarcelona SCLiga Pro3-1
2024-08-31LDU de QuitoBarcelona SCLiga Pro3-0
2024-05-23Barcelona SCLDU de QuitoLiga Pro2-0
2023-09-17Barcelona SCLDU de QuitoLiga Pro1-0
2023-04-15LDU de QuitoBarcelona SCLiga Pro0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.7%, draw 24.0%, away 16.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.56 3.86 5.90
Bet365 1.53 3.80 6.25
BetVictor 1.44 3.30 4.80
Betano 1.60 4.10 6.50
Betfair 1.50 3.80 5.50
Dafabet 1.54 3.95 5.60
Marathonbet 1.49 3.70 5.65
Pinnacle 1.53 4.20 6.04
SBO 1.53 3.50 4.84
William Hill 1.50 3.60 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.53 ▼ -0.11
X 3.80 ▲ +0.25
2 5.62 ▲ +0.62

40 snapshots recorded, from .