Universidad Catolica
vs
Macara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universidad Catolica
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Universidad Catolica vs Macara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad Catolica vs Macara
| Probability | Universidad Catolica | Draw | Macara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 24.8% | 24.0% |
| Market | 54.3% | 25.6% | 20.1% |
| Final | 53.5% | 25.4% | 21.0% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -0.8% | +3.9% |
Why Universidad Catolica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.21.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Universidad Catolica vs Macara match preview
Universidad Catolica enters this match against Macara with a 53% probability of winning, while Macara has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Universidad Catolica, with a 10% likelihood. The expectation for goals is notably high, with Universidad Catolica projected to score 1.85 and Macara 1.22, leading to a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Universidad Catolica has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches, while Macara has been more consistent, winning four of their last six. Historically, Universidad Catolica has dominated their recent encounters, winning three out of the last four meetings and drawing the other. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universidad Catolica and Macara expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Universidad Catolica and Macara attack and defence ratings
Universidad Catolica
Macara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universidad Catolica vs Macara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad Catolica | 53.5% | 1.87 | -3.1% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad Catolica | 53.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Macara | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad Catolica win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
Universidad Catolica vs Macara stats
Universidad Catolica and Macara recent form
| Universidad Catolica |
LWWDDW |
| Macara |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universidad Catolica and Macara season so far
Universidad Catolica record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Macara record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Universidad Catolica vs Macara head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 4-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-4 |
| 2025-04-06 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universidad Catolica vs Macara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 25.6%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.68 | 4.81 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.52 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.72 | 4.64 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.29 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
37 snapshots recorded, from .