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Liga Pro · Full time ·Championship Group - 2

Universidad Catolica vs Macara

0 – 1 Full time

34′Franco Posse
44′Eric David Valencia Reasco
45′Jordán Josué Mohor Nazareno
45′Eric David Valencia ReascoJhostin David Mina Herrera
45′Bruss Abadi Coello MoreiraCarlos Caicedo
45′Andrés RodríguezJosé Fajardo
64′Eddy MejiaAzarias Londono
72′Byron PalaciosMauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
72′Daniel ClavijoFacundo Martinez
73′Mauro Díaz
76′M. VieraLuis Loor
76′Jordán Josué Mohor NazarenoMarlon Medranda
87′augustin campanaPatricio Andrés Ramos Llerena
88′Azarias Londono
90′Franco PosseLuca Agustín Ferro

Olimpico Atahualpa, QuitoReferee: Patricio Parrao

Universidad Catolica 52%
Draw 26%
Macara 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 4
68 Possession % 32
4 Corners 5
11 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 3
3 Saves 2
521 Accurate passes 191

Universidad Catolica vs Macara overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad Catolica vs Macara

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversidad CatolicaDrawMacara
Model51.4%24.8%23.8%
Market52.2%26.1%21.7%
Final52.0%25.8%22.3%
Edge-0.2%-0.3%+0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Universidad Catolica

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.21.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universidad Ca ↓ / Macara → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 12% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Universidad Catolica and Macara expected goals

Universidad Catolica 1.85
Macara 1.21

Total expected goals: 3.06

Universidad Catolica and Macara attack and defence ratings

Universidad Catolica

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Macara

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universidad Catolica vs Macara: result vs prediction

Universidad Catolica 0 – 1 Macara

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Universidad Catolica vs Macara markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universidad Catolica 52.0% 1.92 -0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.1% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.2% 1.66 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.7% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.6% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universidad Catolica52.0%
Draw25.8%
Macara22.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.2%
No39.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.7%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)48.0%
Handicap -1Universidad Catolica win29.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss48.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.7%
2-08.0%

Universidad Catolica vs Macara stats

Universidad Catolica and Macara recent form

newest first
Universidad Catolica LWWDDW
Macara WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universidad Catolica and Macara going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universidad Catolica record

  • They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

Macara record

  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

Universidad Catolica vs Macara head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Universidad Catolica wins 3Draws 0Macara wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-18MacaraUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-1
2026-04-24Universidad CatolicaMacaraLiga Pro4-0
2025-07-27MacaraUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-4
2025-04-06Universidad CatolicaMacaraLiga Pro1-0
2024-11-30MacaraUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-2
2024-06-02Universidad CatolicaMacaraLiga Pro3-0
2022-07-31MacaraUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-3
2022-03-13Universidad CatolicaMacaraLiga Pro2-2
2021-08-29MacaraUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-2
2021-04-01Universidad CatolicaMacaraLiga Pro1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universidad Catolica vs Macara odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 26.1%, away 21.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.79 3.55 4.38
Bet365 1.75 3.50 4.50
BetVictor 1.65 3.10 3.70
Betano 1.85 3.70 4.60
Betfair 1.75 3.50 4.00
Dafabet 1.78 3.60 4.20
Marathonbet 1.71 3.40 4.20
Pinnacle 1.79 3.70 4.49
SBO 1.69 3.34 3.87
William Hill 1.73 3.30 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▲ +0.17
X 3.50 ▼ -0.24
2 4.20 ▼ -1.11

41 snapshots recorded, from .