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Liga Pro · Full time ·Championship Group - 3

Macara vs Independiente del Valle

1 – 0 Full time

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato

Macara 27%
Draw 27%
Independiente del Valle 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Macara vs Independiente del Valle overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Macara vs Independiente del Valle

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMacaraDrawIndependiente del Valle
Model44.1%25.2%30.7%
Market20.9%27.5%51.7%
Final26.7%26.9%46.4%
Edge+23.3%-2.3%-21.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Macara ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Macara and Independiente del Valle expected goals

Macara 1.76
Independiente del Valle 1.44

Total expected goals: 3.20

Macara and Independiente del Valle attack and defence ratings

Macara

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle: result vs prediction

Macara 1 – 0 Independiente del Valle

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Championship Group - 3 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Macara vs Independiente del Valle markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 46.4% 2.15 -21.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.0% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.2% 1.56 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.5% 1.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Macara26.7%
Draw26.9%
Independiente del Valle46.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%
Both teams to scoreYes64.2%
No35.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.6%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)73.3%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win14.4%
Push (exactly one goal)16.1%
Loss69.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-19.1%
1-27.5%

Macara vs Independiente del Valle stats

Macara and Independiente del Valle recent form

newest first
Macara WWWLWW
Independiente del Valle WDWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Macara and Independiente del Valle going into this match

league record before kick-off

Macara record

  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 25 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Macara wins 1Draws 8Independiente del Valle wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-05Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro3-1
2026-05-16MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-3
2025-07-12MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-2
2025-03-16Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro1-1
2024-11-24Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro7-0
2024-05-26MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-1
2022-09-25Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro1-0
2022-05-10MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-1
2021-08-01Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro4-0
2021-02-27MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.1%, draw 28.0%, away 46.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.65 3.46 1.77
Bet365 3.20 3.25 2.15
BetVictor 3.75 3.20 1.62
Betano 3.40 3.10 2.22
Betfair 3.20 3.20 2.15
Dafabet 3.30 3.20 2.16
Marathonbet 4.45 3.32 1.69
Pinnacle 4.92 3.52 1.76
SBO 2.84 3.00 2.06
William Hill 4.20 3.20 1.73

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.33 ▲ +0.69
X 3.29 ▲ +0.27
2 1.75 ▼ -0.31

12 snapshots recorded, from .