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Liga Pro · ·Championship Group - 4

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente del Valle

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente del Valle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Independiente del Valle

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito

Independiente del Valle 53%
Draw 25%
Universidad Catolica 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Independiente del Valle wins
53%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
93%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
58%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente del ValleDrawUniversidad Catolica
Model40.8%27.4%31.8%
Market57.1%24.4%18.5%
Final53.1%25.1%21.8%
Edge-4.1%+0.8%+3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Independiente del Valle

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (our 53.1% × 1.66 − 1).

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica match preview

Independiente del Valle faces Universidad Catolica in a Liga Pro match with a kickoff scheduled for October 23, 2026. According to our model, Independiente del Valle has a 52% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and Universidad Catolica at 23%. The expected goals for Independiente del Valle is 1.51, compared to 1.31 for Universidad Catolica. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Independiente del Valle, with a 9% probability.

Recent form shows Independiente del Valle with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-L-W, while Universidad Catolica has had a challenging run, recording D-L-L-W-W-D. In their last 10 encounters, Independiente del Valle has secured 5 wins, with Universidad Catolica achieving 3 victories and 2 draws. The model indicates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Universidad Ca → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica expected goals

Independiente del Valle 1.51
Universidad Catolica 1.31

Total expected goals: 2.82

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica attack and defence ratings

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Universidad Catolica

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 53.1% 1.88 -4.1% 1.66
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.6% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.1% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.2% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.2% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente del Valle53.1%
Draw25.1%
Universidad Catolica21.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.1%
No41.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.2%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)46.9%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win20.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss59.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
2-18.9%
1-07.8%
Compare prices for this pick

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica stats

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica recent form

newest first
Independiente del Valle LWDWLW
Universidad Catolica DLLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica season so far

league record

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 25 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universidad Catolica record

  • They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 9 penalties (56%).

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Independiente del Valle wins 2Draws 3Universidad Catolica wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-29Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro2-2
2026-05-13Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador0-3
2026-05-01Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro2-3
2025-12-14Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-1
2025-11-08Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro0-2
2025-10-13Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaCopa Ecuador1-2
2025-06-29Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-3
2025-03-02Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-1
2024-10-29Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaCopa Ecuador1-2
2024-10-22Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleCopa Ecuador0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 57.1%, draw 24.4%, away 18.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.62 3.91 5.07
Bet365 1.65 3.75 5.00
Betano 1.65 3.80 5.10
Betfair 1.57 4.00 5.00
Dafabet 1.66 3.80 4.60
Marathonbet 1.55 3.74 4.85
Pinnacle 1.60 4.05 5.01
SBO 1.61 3.35 4.00
William Hill 1.62 3.60 4.50
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.62 ▼ -0.03
X 3.80 —
2 5.00 ▲ +0.40

7 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Independiente del Valle Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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