Independiente del Valle
vs
LDU de Quito
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente del Valle
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente del Valle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
| Probability | Independiente del Valle | Draw | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 28.8% | 26.9% |
| Market | 48.9% | 26.5% | 24.6% |
| Final | 47.7% | 27.1% | 25.2% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +0.6% | +0.6% |
Why Independiente del Valle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.08.
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 47.7% × 1.93 − 1).
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito match preview
Independiente del Valle faces LDU de Quito in a Liga Pro match with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Independiente del Valle has a 48% probability of winning, while LDU de Quito sits at 25%, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Independiente del Valle, with expected goals of 1.44 for them and 1.08 for LDU de Quito.
Recent form shows Independiente del Valle with a mixed record of D-L-W-D-W-L, while LDU de Quito has been more consistent with L-D-W-W-W-D. In their last six encounters, Independiente del Valle has secured 1 win, LDU de Quito has 2 wins, and there have been 3 draws. Both teams have a 52% chance of scoring in this match, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 46%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito attack and defence ratings
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 47.7% | 2.09 | -1.2% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 47.7% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| LDU de Quito | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito stats
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito recent form
| Independiente del Valle |
DLWDWL |
| LDU de Quito |
LDWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito season so far
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 25 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LDU de Quito record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | LDU de Quito | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Independiente del Valle | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-10 | Independiente del Valle | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | LDU de Quito | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-22 | LDU de Quito | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Independiente del Valle | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 26.5%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.45 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.66 | 3.86 |