Macara
vs
Barcelona SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Macara
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Macara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Macara vs Barcelona SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Macara vs Barcelona SC
| Probability | Macara | Draw | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 29.6% | 26.2% |
| Market | 44.8% | 28.4% | 26.9% |
| Final | 44.6% | 28.7% | 26.7% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.3% | -0.2% |
Why Macara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 2.15 − 1).
Macara vs Barcelona SC match preview
Macara enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five games, while Barcelona SC has a mixed record with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. The probabilities suggest a 45% chance of a Macara victory, with a predicted scoreline of 1-0 being the most likely outcome at 11%.
Expected goals indicate that Macara is projected to score 1.39, compared to Barcelona SC's 1.02. Additionally, there is a 49% likelihood that both teams will score, while the model suggests a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. In their last four encounters, Macara has won three times, while Barcelona SC has secured one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Macara and Barcelona SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Macara and Barcelona SC attack and defence ratings
Macara
Barcelona SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Macara vs Barcelona SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.1% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 44.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Barcelona SC | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Macara win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.3% |
Macara vs Barcelona SC stats
Macara and Barcelona SC recent form
| Macara |
WWWWWL |
| Barcelona SC |
WDLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Macara and Barcelona SC season so far
Macara record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Barcelona SC record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Macara vs Barcelona SC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Barcelona SC | Macara | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Macara | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Barcelona SC | Macara | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Macara | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Macara vs Barcelona SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 28.4%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.22 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.37 | 3.86 |