Macara
vs
Universidad Catolica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Macara
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.85.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Macara vs Universidad Catolica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Macara vs Universidad Catolica
| Probability | Macara | Draw | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 27.9% | 19.2% |
| Market | 39.6% | 28.6% | 31.8% |
| Final | 43.0% | 28.4% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -0.2% | -3.1% |
Why Macara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Macara below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.41 − 1).
Macara vs Universidad Catolica match preview
Macara faces Universidad Catolica in their upcoming Liga Pro match, with Macara holding a 43% probability of winning, while Universidad Catolica stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Macara, which has a 13% chance of occurring. Macara has shown strong recent form, winning their last six matches, while Universidad Catolica has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games.
In terms of expected goals, Macara is projected to score 1.56, compared to Universidad Catolica's 0.85. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43%, and both teams scoring has a probability of 46%. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Macara has secured one win, while Universidad Catolica has dominated with seven victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Macara and Universidad Catolica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Macara and Universidad Catolica attack and defence ratings
Macara
Universidad Catolica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Macara vs Universidad Catolica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 43.0% | 2.33 | +3.3% | 2.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 43.0% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Universidad Catolica | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Macara win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Macara vs Universidad Catolica stats
Macara and Universidad Catolica recent form
| Macara |
WWWWWW |
| Universidad Catolica |
LDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Macara and Universidad Catolica season so far
Macara record
- They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Universidad Catolica record
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 9 penalties (56%).
Macara vs Universidad Catolica head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 4-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-4 |
| 2025-04-06 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2024-06-02 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
| 2022-07-31 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2022-03-13 | Universidad Catolica | Macara | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2021-08-29 | Macara | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Macara vs Universidad Catolica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 28.6%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.22 | 2.98 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 2.88 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.33 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 3.08 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.98 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .