Universidad Catolica
vs
Aucas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universidad Catolica
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Universidad Catolica is the favourite, not a value bet.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad Catolica vs Aucas
| Probability | Universidad Catolica | Draw | Aucas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.0% | 26.8% | 14.2% |
| Market | 51.4% | 27.2% | 21.4% |
| Final | 53.3% | 27.1% | 19.6% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.1% | -1.8% |
Why Universidad Catolica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (our 53.3% × 1.82 − 1).
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas match preview
Universidad Catolica enters the match against Aucas with a probability of 53% to win, while Aucas has a 20% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.61 for Universidad Catolica and 0.67 for Aucas. Recent form shows Universidad Catolica with a mixed record of D-D-L-L-W-W, while Aucas has struggled, recording L-D-L-L-D-D in their last six matches.
In their last ten encounters, Universidad Catolica has secured 2 wins, while Aucas has 4 wins and there have been 4 draws. The model indicates a 40% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a cautious expectation for the match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universidad Catolica and Aucas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Universidad Catolica and Aucas attack and defence ratings
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad Catolica | 53.3% | 1.88 | +1.9% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad Catolica | 53.3% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Aucas | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad Catolica win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 2-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas stats
Universidad Catolica and Aucas recent form
| Universidad Catolica |
DDLLWW |
| Aucas |
LDLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universidad Catolica and Aucas season so far
Universidad Catolica record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 9 penalties (56%).
Aucas record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Universidad Catolica | Aucas | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Aucas | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Universidad Catolica | Aucas | Liga Pro | 6-2 |
| 2025-04-16 | Aucas | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-07 | Universidad Catolica | Aucas | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Universidad Catolica | Aucas | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2024-05-19 | Aucas | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-17 | Universidad Catolica | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2023-03-19 | Aucas | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro | 4-1 |
| 2022-09-05 | Universidad Catolica | Aucas | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.4%, draw 27.2%, away 21.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.55 | 4.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.52 | 4.32 |