Aucas
vs
Independiente del Valle
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente del Valle
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente del Valle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
| Probability | Aucas | Draw | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.9% | 29.5% | 43.6% |
| Market | 29.2% | 28.1% | 42.7% |
| Final | 28.6% | 28.5% | 42.9% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
Why Independiente del Valle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (our 42.9% × 2.21 − 1).
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle match preview
Aucas will face Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro on November 8, 2026. According to our model, Aucas has a 29% chance of winning, while Independiente del Valle holds a 43% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with Aucas expected to achieve 1.04 goals and Independiente del Valle 1.39. Recent form shows Aucas with a record of one win, two draws, and three losses, while Independiente del Valle has secured three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model indicates a 44% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 50% chance that both teams will find the net. The head-to-head record in the last ten encounters favors Independiente del Valle, who have won seven times compared to Aucas' single victory and two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aucas and Independiente del Valle expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Aucas and Independiente del Valle attack and defence ratings
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.2% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 28.6% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Independiente del Valle | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle stats
Aucas and Independiente del Valle recent form
| Aucas |
WLDLLD |
| Independiente del Valle |
WDLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aucas and Independiente del Valle season so far
Aucas record
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 26 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-28 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-01 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-24 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-11 | Aucas | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-02 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Independiente del Valle | Aucas | Supercopa de Ecuador | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.2%, draw 28.1%, away 42.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.38 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.24 | 2.09 |
| Pinnacle | 3.17 | 3.55 | 2.21 |
| SBO | 2.83 | 3.01 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .