Barcelona SC
vs
LDU de Quito
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barcelona SC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Barcelona SC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito
| Probability | Barcelona SC | Draw | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 29.5% | 27.8% |
| Market | 36.1% | 28.7% | 35.3% |
| Final | 37.7% | 28.9% | 33.4% |
| Edge | +1.7% | +0.2% | -1.9% |
Why Barcelona SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.06.
Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (our 37.7% × 2.67 − 1).
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito match preview
Barcelona SC faces LDU de Quito in an intriguing Liga Pro matchup. Barcelona SC has a 38% probability of winning, while LDU de Quito stands at 33%, with a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Barcelona SC, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals are estimated at 1.38 for Barcelona SC and 1.06 for LDU de Quito, indicating a potentially tight contest.
In terms of recent form, Barcelona SC has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while LDU de Quito has shown stronger form with three consecutive wins following two losses and a draw. Historically, in their last ten encounters, LDU de Quito has the edge with six wins compared to Barcelona SC's three victories and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito attack and defence ratings
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona SC | 37.7% | 2.65 | +1.7% | 2.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona SC | 37.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| LDU de Quito | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona SC win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito stats
Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito recent form
| Barcelona SC |
LWDLDD |
| LDU de Quito |
LLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito season so far
Barcelona SC record
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LDU de Quito record
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | LDU de Quito | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Barcelona SC | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | LDU de Quito | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Barcelona SC | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | LDU de Quito | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Barcelona SC | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-19 | LDU de Quito | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | LDU de Quito | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-23 | Barcelona SC | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Barcelona SC | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 28.7%, away 35.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.22 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 2.88 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.08 | 2.49 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 3.33 | 2.74 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 2.91 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .