Barcelona SC
vs
Independiente del Valle
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente del Valle
0 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente del Valle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle
| Probability | Barcelona SC | Draw | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.4% | 28.6% | 37.0% |
| Market | 34.1% | 29.8% | 36.1% |
| Final | 34.2% | 29.5% | 36.3% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.3% | +0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.60 − 1).
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle match preview
Barcelona SC faces Independiente del Valle in a Liga Pro match with a competitive outlook. According to our model, Barcelona SC has a 34% chance of winning, while Independiente del Valle is slightly favored at 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with expected goals of 1.44 for Barcelona SC and 1.03 for Independiente del Valle. Recent form shows Barcelona SC with two wins, two draws, and one loss, while Independiente del Valle has two wins, two draws, and one loss.
In terms of scoring, there is a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 55% chance of scoring. The head-to-head record in the last 10 encounters favors Independiente del Valle, who have secured 6 wins compared to Barcelona SC's 3 wins and 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle attack and defence ratings
Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 36.3% | 2.75 | +0.2% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona SC | 34.2% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Independiente del Valle | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 9.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.7% | |
| Loss | 74.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle stats
Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle recent form
| Barcelona SC |
WDLDDW |
| Independiente del Valle |
DLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle season so far
Barcelona SC record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 25 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Barcelona SC | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Independiente del Valle | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Independiente del Valle | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Barcelona SC | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-3 |
| 2025-07-06 | Independiente del Valle | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-28 | Independiente del Valle | Barcelona SC | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-02 | Barcelona SC | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Barcelona SC | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 0-4 |
| 2024-08-10 | Barcelona SC | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2024-03-09 | Independiente del Valle | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 29.7%, away 36.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.15 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.08 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.11 | 2.58 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .