Aucas
vs
Barcelona SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aucas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aucas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aucas vs Barcelona SC
| Probability | Aucas | Draw | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 34.1% | 27.2% |
| Market | 49.0% | 28.2% | 22.9% |
| Final | 46.4% | 29.6% | 24.0% |
| Edge | -2.6% | +1.5% | +1.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (our 46.4% × 1.90 − 1).
Aucas vs Barcelona SC match preview
Aucas is set to face Barcelona SC in the Liga Pro, with a kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Aucas has a 47% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 30% and Barcelona SC at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Aucas, with an expected goals tally of 1.07 for Aucas and 0.85 for Barcelona SC.
In terms of recent form, Aucas has recorded a series of draws and losses, with their latest results being D-L-L-D-D-D. Conversely, Barcelona SC's recent performances include a mix of draws and a single win, resulting in D-L-D-D-W-L. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Aucas with 2 wins, 5 draws, and Barcelona SC with 3 wins, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aucas and Barcelona SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.92
Aucas and Barcelona SC attack and defence ratings
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aucas vs Barcelona SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 46.4% | 2.16 | -2.6% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 46.4% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Barcelona SC | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.9% |
| No | 61.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aucas win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 14.3% |
Aucas vs Barcelona SC stats
Aucas and Barcelona SC recent form
| Aucas |
DLLDDD |
| Barcelona SC |
DLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aucas and Barcelona SC season so far
Aucas record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona SC record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Aucas | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Barcelona SC | Aucas | Liga Pro | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Barcelona SC | Aucas | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Barcelona SC | Aucas | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Aucas | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Aucas | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Barcelona SC | Aucas | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Aucas | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2023-05-07 | Barcelona SC | Aucas | Liga Pro | 5-1 |
| 2022-11-13 | Aucas | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.0%, draw 28.2%, away 22.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.34 | 4.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.35 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.35 | 4.22 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 2.91 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .