LDU de Quito
vs
Macara
Garuda Lions Prediction: LDU de Quito
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — LDU de Quito is the favourite, not a value bet.
LDU de Quito vs Macara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: LDU de Quito vs Macara
| Probability | LDU de Quito | Draw | Macara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.5% | 30.5% | 30.0% |
| Market | 55.7% | 25.5% | 18.8% |
| Final | 51.6% | 26.8% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +1.2% | +2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.8% per unit staked (our 51.6% × 1.67 − 1).
LDU de Quito vs Macara match preview
LDU de Quito faces Macara in a Liga Pro match with LDU de Quito holding a 52% probability of winning, while a draw is at 27% and Macara at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.27 for LDU de Quito and 1.07 for Macara, indicating a closely contested match.
In terms of recent form, LDU de Quito has recorded a mixed bag of results with D-W-W-W-D-L, while Macara has shown a stronger performance with W-W-W-W-L-W. The head-to-head record in the last four encounters favors Macara with 2 wins, alongside 1 win for LDU de Quito and 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
LDU de Quito and Macara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
LDU de Quito and Macara attack and defence ratings
LDU de Quito
Macara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
LDU de Quito vs Macara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LDU de Quito | 51.6% | 1.94 | -4.1% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LDU de Quito | 51.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Macara | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.6% |
| No | 51.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | LDU de Quito win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.9% |
LDU de Quito vs Macara stats
LDU de Quito and Macara recent form
| LDU de Quito |
DWWWDL |
| Macara |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
LDU de Quito and Macara season so far
LDU de Quito record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Macara record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
LDU de Quito vs Macara head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Macara | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-01 | LDU de Quito | Macara | Liga Pro | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | LDU de Quito | Macara | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Macara | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
LDU de Quito vs Macara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 25.5%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.54 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.05 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.24 | 4.09 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .