CONMEBOL Libertadores
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Independiente del Valle
vs
Flamengo
0 – 2 Full time
| 45′ | Carlos GonzálezDjorkaeff Reascos | ||
| 50′ | Erick Pulgar | ||
| 57′ | Mateo Carabajal | ||
| 61′ | Bruno Henrique | ||
| 72′ | Giorgian de ArrascaetaLucas Paquetá | ||
| 72′ | Jorge CarrascalGonzalo Plata | ||
| 75′ | Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezMatias Mijail Perello | ||
| 75′ | Junior SornozaRonald Briones | ||
| 75′ | Léo Pereira | ||
| 85′ | Aron RodríguezEdwin Quintero | ||
| 85′ | Hugo QuintanaYouri Ochoa | ||
| 85′ | Bruno HenriquePedro | ||
| 86′ | Ayrton LucasGuillermo Varela | ||
| 90′ | Samuel LinoLuiz Araújo | ||
| 90′ | Edwin Quintero |
Independiente del Valle
35%
Draw
30%
Flamengo
35%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 3 |
| 488 | Accurate passes | 279 |
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo
| Probability | Independiente del Valle | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 25.6% | 30.7% |
| Market | 32.6% | 31.5% | 35.9% |
| Final | 35.4% | 30.0% | 34.6% |
| Edge | +11.1% | -5.9% | -5.2% |
Why Independiente del Valle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.41.
- The market prices Independiente del Valle below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Independiente del Valle and Flamengo expected goals
Independiente del Valle
1.71
Flamengo
1.41
Total expected goals: 3.12
Independiente del Valle and Flamengo attack and defence ratings
Independiente del Valle
Attack
1.93 +93%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Flamengo
Attack
1.58 +58%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo: result vs prediction
Independiente del Valle 0 – 2 Flamengo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 35.4% | 2.83 | +11.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 35.4% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Flamengo | 34.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% |
| No | 37.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo stats
Independiente del Valle and Flamengo recent form
| Independiente del Valle |
WLDWWW |
| Flamengo |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente del Valle and Flamengo going into this match
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2Independiente del Valle wins
1Draws
3Flamengo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-01 | Flamengo | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Recopa | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-22 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Recopa | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-01 | Flamengo | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 4-0 |
| 2020-09-18 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 5-0 |
| 2020-02-27 | Flamengo | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Recopa | 3-0 |
| 2020-02-20 | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Recopa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 31.5%, away 35.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.58 | 3.10 | 2.78 |
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 3.08 | 2.66 |
| 888Sport | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 2.95 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.05 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.54 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.14 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.75 | 2.94 | 2.46 |
| Superbet | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Unibet | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.90 ▲ +0.17
X
3.00 ▼ -0.02
2
2.63 ▼ -0.04
12 snapshots recorded, from .