Garuda Lions
Today
Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 29

Independiente del Valle vs Macara

3 – 1 Full time

-5′Junior Sornoza
8′D. Reasco
10′D. Reasco
15′R. Briones
32′S. EtchebarneJ. Jimenez
46′M. AyalaJ. Mohor
46′L. FerroM. Tello
66′Franco Posse
70′R. BrionesJ. Sornoza
70′E. QuinteroA. Rodriguez
70′J. AlcivarH. Quintana
70′J. KlingerM. Viera
75′D. ReascoC. Gonzalez
75′A. Velasco
77′A. VelascoR. Schunke

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, QuitoReferee: Y. Zambrano

Independiente del Valle 65%
Draw 21%
Macara 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 7
49 Possession % 51
4 Corners 6
5 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 2
7 Saves 3
313 Accurate passes 330

Independiente del Valle vs Macara overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Macara

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente del ValleDrawMacara
Model58.9%20.6%20.5%
Market67.1%20.7%12.1%
Final65.1%20.7%14.2%
Edge-8.3%-0.1%+8.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente del Valle

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.38.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Macara → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 5% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Independiente del Valle and Macara expected goals

Independiente del Valle 2.37
Macara 1.38

Total expected goals: 3.75

Independiente del Valle and Macara attack and defence ratings

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.80 +80%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Macara

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independiente del Valle vs Macara: result vs prediction

Independiente del Valle 3 – 1 Macara

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Independiente del Valle vs Macara markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 65.1% 1.54 -8.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.3% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.6% 1.46 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.8% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.1% 2.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente del Valle65.1%
Draw20.7%
Macara14.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%
Both teams to scoreYes68.6%
No31.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.8%
12 (either side)79.3%
X2 (draw or away)34.9%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win38.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss41.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
1-18.4%
3-17.2%

Independiente del Valle vs Macara stats

Independiente del Valle and Macara recent form

newest first
Independiente del Valle LDWWWW
Macara WWLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente del Valle and Macara going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 22 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Macara record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

Independiente del Valle vs Macara head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Independiente del Valle wins 1Draws 2Macara wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-16MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-3
2025-07-12MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-2
2025-03-16Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro1-1
2024-11-24Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro7-0
2024-05-26MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-1
2022-09-25Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro1-0
2022-05-10MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-1
2021-08-01Independiente del ValleMacaraLiga Pro4-0
2021-02-27MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro3-1
2020-12-21MacaraIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente del Valle vs Macara odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.4%, draw 21.7%, away 13.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.36 4.74 7.95
Bet365 1.38 4.33 7.50
BetVictor 1.30 3.80 6.00
Betano 1.53 4.05 5.90
Betfair 1.44 4.10 6.00
Dafabet 1.51 4.10 5.80
Marathonbet 1.33 4.45 7.50
Pinnacle 1.38 4.80 7.92
SBO 1.44 3.60 5.03
Superbet 1.52 4.15 5.60
Unibet 1.43 4.30 7.00
William Hill 1.35 4.20 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.35 ▼ -0.10
X 4.39 ▲ +0.39
2 7.50 ▲ +1.50

5 snapshots recorded, from .