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Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 29

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte

1 – 1 Full time

7′C. Solano
21′Patricio Madero
22′R. Ibarra
31′Miguel Caicedo
46′M. CaicedoS. Portocarrero
64′D. PazminoA. Aguas
64′E. PepinosT. Amilivia
73′M. PereaB. Corozo
73′T. MindaF. Mina
73′N. BazanE. Caicedo
74′T. CoppoJ. Cabeza

Estadio Bellavista, AmbatoReferee: O. Contreras

Mushuc Runa SC 45%
Draw 30%
Leones del Norte 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 3
48 Possession % 52
6 Corners 5
9 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 4
280 Accurate passes 284

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMushuc Runa SCDrawLeones del Norte
Model40.6%33.7%25.8%
Market45.8%29.1%25.1%
Final44.5%30.2%25.3%
Edge-5.2%+4.6%+0.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Mushuc Runa SC

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mushuc Runa SC ↓ / Leones del Nor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 11% 1 15% 15% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 31%
No goals 16%

Mushuc Runa SC and Leones del Norte expected goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1.11
Leones del Norte 0.83

Total expected goals: 1.94

Mushuc Runa SC and Leones del Norte attack and defence ratings

Mushuc Runa SC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Leones del Norte

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte: result vs prediction

Mushuc Runa SC 1 – 1 Leones del Norte

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mushuc Runa SC 44.5% 2.25 -5.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.4% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score No 61.0% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.4% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mushuc Runa SC44.5%
Draw30.2%
Leones del Norte25.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.6%
Under 2.569.4%
Both teams to scoreYes39.0%
No61.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.7%
12 (either side)69.8%
X2 (draw or away)55.5%
Handicap -1Mushuc Runa SC win17.4%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss59.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.7%
1-014.7%
1-114.6%

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte stats

Mushuc Runa SC and Leones del Norte recent form

newest first
Mushuc Runa SC DWDDWW
Leones del Norte WLLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mushuc Runa SC and Leones del Norte going into this match

league record before kick-off

Mushuc Runa SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Leones del Norte record

  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Mushuc Runa SC wins 1Draws 1Leones del Norte wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17Leones del NorteMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-1
2024-07-21Leones del NorteMushuc Runa SCCopa Ecuador0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 29.1%, away 25.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.10 3.25 3.50
1xBet 2.06 3.13 3.76
Bet365 2.00 3.20 3.80
BetVictor 1.91 2.80 3.13
Betano 2.07 3.15 3.65
Betfair 2.00 3.10 3.50
Dafabet 2.03 3.15 3.70
Marathonbet 1.99 3.02 3.62
Pinnacle 2.12 3.15 3.84
SBO 2.00 2.92 3.26
Superbet 2.05 3.20 3.70
Unibet 1.90 3.35 4.10
William Hill 2.00 2.88 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▲ +0.25
X 3.15 ▼ -0.28
2 3.65 ▼ -0.99

8 snapshots recorded, from .