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Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 30

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC

3 – 1 Full time

23′Edinson Mero
34′Ronny Biojó
36′Jeremy Cusme
38′Alex Ibarra
45′Alex IbarraNazareno Bazán
45′R. Arias
45′Freddy MinaElian Caicedo
51′Edinson Mero
55′Miguel Perea
57′P. GonzálezPablo Mancilla
57′R. AriasErick Patricio Ladines Calvache
57′Edinson MeroMiller Bolaños
65′Arnaldo ZambranoBryan Corozo
65′Joshue·QuinonezEsnaider Cabezas
68′Nazareno Bazán
70′Diego Dorregaray
73′Pablo Mancilla
76′S LaurinoKevin Sambonino
83′Cristopher AnguloKevin Peralta
83′José HernándezJefferson Caicedo
84′Diego Dorregaray

Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt, GuayaquilReferee: G. Araujo

Guayaquil City FC 36%
Draw 31%
Mushuc Runa SC 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 3
60 Possession % 40
4 Corners 4
10 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
431 Accurate passes 232

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGuayaquil City FCDrawMushuc Runa SC
Model35.2%31.4%33.5%
Market35.7%30.3%34.0%
Final35.6%30.5%33.9%
Edge-0.6%+1.1%-0.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Guayaquil City ↓ / Mushuc Runa SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 10% 1 11% 15% 7% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Guayaquil City FC and Mushuc Runa SC expected goals

Guayaquil City FC 1.15
Mushuc Runa SC 1.11

Total expected goals: 2.26

Guayaquil City FC and Mushuc Runa SC attack and defence ratings

Guayaquil City FC

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Mushuc Runa SC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC: result vs prediction

Guayaquil City FC 3 – 1 Mushuc Runa SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Guayaquil City FC 35.6% 2.81 -0.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.8% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.5% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.8% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Guayaquil City FC35.6%
Draw30.5%
Mushuc Runa SC33.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.2%
Under 2.560.8%
Both teams to scoreYes47.0%
No53.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.1%
12 (either side)69.5%
X2 (draw or away)64.4%
Handicap -1Guayaquil City FC win15.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss64.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.7%
0-011.8%
1-010.7%

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC stats

Guayaquil City FC and Mushuc Runa SC recent form

newest first
Guayaquil City FC LLWWDD
Mushuc Runa SC DDWDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Guayaquil City FC and Mushuc Runa SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Guayaquil City FC record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Mushuc Runa SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Guayaquil City FC wins 2Draws 4Mushuc Runa SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Mushuc Runa SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro2-2
2025-08-06Guayaquil City FCMushuc Runa SCCopa Ecuador3-1
2023-08-16Mushuc Runa SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro3-0
2023-03-18Guayaquil City FCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro4-1
2022-09-20Guayaquil City FCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro4-1
2022-04-30Mushuc Runa SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro2-0
2021-11-21Mushuc Runa SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro1-0
2021-05-29Guayaquil City FCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro0-0
2020-11-14Guayaquil City FCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-2
2020-09-26Mushuc Runa SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 30.1%, away 34.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.80 3.15 2.52
1xBet 2.64 3.04 2.76
Bet365 2.60 3.20 2.70
BetVictor 2.30 2.75 2.45
Betano 2.67 3.10 2.70
Betfair 2.50 3.00 2.63
Marathonbet 2.54 2.92 2.67
Pinnacle 2.69 3.06 2.86
SBO 2.50 2.85 2.50
Unibet 2.95 3.15 2.43
William Hill 2.50 2.80 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.54 ▼ -0.25
X 3.00 ▼ -0.06
2 2.67 ▲ +0.15

10 snapshots recorded, from .