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Liga Pro · Full time ·Placement Group - 1

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte

1 – 1 Full time

14′A. AguasJ. Moran
29′Roger Arias
32′Emiliano Griffa
38′M. Luque
43′Dixon Arroyo
46′J. QuinonezE. P. Ladines Calvache
46′A. NaulaP. Mancilla
57′Jordan Morán
64′P. GonzalezJ. Vivar
66′R. AriasJ. Ordonez
66′E. GriffaM. Caramuto
69′Yardely Rodriguez
88′Tobías Coppo
90′Juan Anangonó
90′Patricio Madero
90′D. DorregarayM. Palma
90′M. LuqueF. Vargas
90′C. SolanoD. Pazmino
90′J. AnangonoT. Amilivia
90′D. Dorregaray

Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt, GuayaquilReferee: A. Cajas

Guayaquil City FC 43%
Draw 30%
Leones del Norte 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 4
64 Possession % 36
3 Corners 2
11 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2
476 Accurate passes 225

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGuayaquil City FCDrawLeones del Norte
Model46.8%27.6%25.6%
Market41.3%30.3%28.4%
Final42.7%29.7%27.7%
Edge+5.5%-2.7%-2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Guayaquil City FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Guayaquil City FC below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Guayaquil City ↓ / Leones del Nor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Guayaquil City FC and Leones del Norte expected goals

Guayaquil City FC 1.56
Leones del Norte 1.10

Total expected goals: 2.66

Guayaquil City FC and Leones del Norte attack and defence ratings

Guayaquil City FC

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Leones del Norte

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte: result vs prediction

Guayaquil City FC 1 – 1 Leones del Norte

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Placement Group - 1 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Guayaquil City FC 42.7% 2.34 +5.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.9% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.2% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Guayaquil City FC42.7%
Draw29.7%
Leones del Norte27.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.9%
No46.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.3%
12 (either side)70.3%
X2 (draw or away)57.3%
Handicap -1Guayaquil City FC win24.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss53.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-09.7%
2-19.4%

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte stats

Guayaquil City FC and Leones del Norte recent form

newest first
Guayaquil City FC WLLWWD
Leones del Norte LDWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Guayaquil City FC and Leones del Norte going into this match

league record before kick-off

Guayaquil City FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leones del Norte record

  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Guayaquil City FC wins 5Draws 3Leones del Norte wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-23Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro1-1
2026-03-23Guayaquil City FCLeones del NorteLiga Pro0-0
2025-10-29Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B0-0
2025-08-27Guayaquil City FCLeones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B2-1
2025-07-23Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B2-1
2025-05-15Guayaquil City FCLeones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B0-1
2024-10-18Guayaquil City FCLeones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B2-0
2024-08-29Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B1-0
2024-05-30Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B0-0
2024-04-03Guayaquil City FCLeones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 29.6%, away 28.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.25 3.06 3.34
Bet365 2.25 3.10 3.20
BetVictor 2.05 2.75 2.88
Betano 2.15 3.10 3.50
Betfair 2.05 3.10 3.30
Marathonbet 2.15 2.93 3.20
Pinnacle 2.27 3.15 3.41
William Hill 2.15 2.80 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.05
X 3.00 ▼ -0.07
2 3.20 ▼ -0.30

4 snapshots recorded, from .