Liga Pro
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Leones del Norte
vs
Tecnico Universitario
0 – 1 Full time
| 28′ | Yorlin Edwin Arce Mina | ||
| 36′ | Bagner Delgado | ||
| 45′ | Miguel Yordan Caicedo OrobioSegundo Portocarrero | ||
| 45′ | Jordan Eduardo Morán CortezBrian Gastón Kreiman | ||
| 53′ | Elian Pepinos | ||
| 57′ | Segundo Portocarrero | ||
| 60′ | Elian PepinosThomas Amilivia | ||
| 67′ | Yorlin Edwin Arce MinaCarlos Cuero | ||
| 67′ | Johan BocanegraHeuyín Anel Guardia González | ||
| 69′ | E. MesaMarco Alexander Carrasco Bonilla | ||
| 69′ | Diego ArmasKener Arce | ||
| 74′ | Alexis Nicolás MonserratDario Pazmino | ||
| 77′ | Diego Armas | ||
| 77′ | M. Córdoba | ||
| 78′ | Adrian Cela | ||
| 79′ | Luis EstupiñanCesar Castano | ||
| 85′ | Patricio MaderoMaiky de la Cruz | ||
| 87′ | Emiliano Griffa | ||
| 90′ | A. Morales |
Leones del Norte
50%
Draw
28%
Tecnico Universitario
22%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 398 | Accurate passes | 202 |
Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario
| Probability | Leones del Norte | Draw | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.2% | 22.9% | 13.9% |
| Market | 45.9% | 29.6% | 24.5% |
| Final | 50.2% | 27.9% | 21.8% |
| Edge | +17.3% | -6.7% | -10.6% |
Why Leones del Norte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leones del Norte below the model: +17.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Leones del Norte and Tecnico Universitario expected goals
Leones del Norte
1.96
Tecnico Universitario
0.82
Total expected goals: 2.78
Leones del Norte and Tecnico Universitario attack and defence ratings
Leones del Norte
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Tecnico Universitario
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
1.48 +48%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario: result vs prediction
Leones del Norte 0 – 1 Tecnico Universitario
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 50.2% | 1.99 | +17.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win | 39.3% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 50.2% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Tecnico Universitario | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win | 39.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 36.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario stats
Leones del Norte and Tecnico Universitario recent form
| Leones del Norte |
DWLLWL |
| Tecnico Universitario |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones del Norte and Tecnico Universitario going into this match
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tecnico Universitario record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
0Leones del Norte wins
0Draws
1Tecnico Universitario wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Tecnico Universitario | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 29.2%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.10 | 4.03 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.25 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.35 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 2.99 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.15 | 4.11 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 2.94 | 3.74 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.35 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 2.88 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.00 ▲ +0.20
X
3.10 ▼ -0.20
2
3.75 ▼ -0.79
12 snapshots recorded, from .