Garuda Lions
Today
Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 30

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle

2 – 3 Full time

19′Matias Mijail Perello
29′Edu PinedaJohan Estacio
29′D. CoronelGabriel Cortez
34′Yandri Vásquez
45′Gabriel Cortez
56′Vilinton German Branda Merlin
60′Hólger Jamil Quintero PreciadoJunior Sornoza
60′Edwin QuinteroEmerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
62′Johan Estacio
65′Jhon Espinoza
68′Orlin Quinonez
69′Ronald BrionesHugo Quintana
69′Matias Mijail PerelloSteven Daniel Góngora Palacios
72′Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
76′Orlin QuinonezEnrique Rafael Caicedo Borja
82′Youri OchoaMateo Carabajal
84′Vilinton German Branda MerlinCarlos Orejuela
84′cristhian valenciaJostin Bravo
90′Jhon Espinoza

Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, LojaReferee: B. L. Salazar

Libertad 29%
Draw 27%
Independiente del Valle 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 21
4 Shots on target 9
49 Possession % 51
4 Corners 6
13 Fouls 13
6 Saves 2
237 Accurate passes 268

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Libertad vs Independiente del Valle

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLibertadDrawIndependiente del Valle
Model40.6%28.7%30.7%
Market25.4%27.1%47.5%
Final29.2%27.5%43.3%
Edge+15.1%+1.6%-16.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Libertad ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 1 9% 14% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Libertad and Independiente del Valle expected goals

Libertad 1.40
Independiente del Valle 1.19

Total expected goals: 2.60

Libertad and Independiente del Valle attack and defence ratings

Libertad

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.60 +60%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle: result vs prediction

Libertad 2 – 3 Independiente del Valle

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 43.3% 2.31 -16.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.9% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.8% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.3% 1.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Libertad29.2%
Draw27.5%
Independiente del Valle43.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%
Both teams to scoreYes53.8%
No46.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.7%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)70.8%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win13.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss69.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-09.2%
2-18.8%

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle stats

Libertad and Independiente del Valle recent form

newest first
Libertad WDLWDW
Independiente del Valle LWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Libertad and Independiente del Valle going into this match

league record before kick-off

Libertad record

  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 23 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Libertad wins 4Draws 3Independiente del Valle wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Independiente del ValleLibertadLiga Pro2-3
2025-12-06Independiente del ValleLibertadLiga Pro1-1
2025-11-04LibertadIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-3
2025-06-14Independiente del ValleLibertadLiga Pro1-1
2025-02-15LibertadIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro2-0
2024-09-21LibertadIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-1
2024-04-07Independiente del ValleLibertadLiga Pro3-0
2023-09-17Independiente del ValleLibertadLiga Pro2-0
2023-04-15LibertadIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.6%, draw 26.9%, away 48.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.20 3.70 1.77
1xBet 3.76 3.46 1.94
888Sport 4.00 3.30 1.73
Bet365 3.75 3.50 1.95
BetVictor 3.25 3.00 1.80
Betano 3.90 3.70 2.00
Betfair 3.60 3.40 1.90
Marathonbet 3.62 3.34 1.87
Pinnacle 3.89 3.53 1.95
SBO 3.02 3.01 1.98
Unibet 4.50 3.60 1.75
William Hill 3.50 3.20 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.62 ▼ -0.98
X 3.40 ▼ -0.28
2 1.94 ▲ +0.29

14 snapshots recorded, from .