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Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 30

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC

2 – 1 Full time

3′José Fajardo
5′Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
14′Valentín Burgoa
26′Sixto Mina
43′Valentín Burgoa
45′Jimmy EvansDarwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
71′Wilson Arturo Chuchuca ArreagaJ. Valencia
73′Facundo MartinezJonnathan Mina
78′Beder Caicedo
84′Ángel MenaRenny Jaramillo
84′Christian Alejandro Ortíz CalleMichael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes
84′J. ValenciaLuis Miguel Garcés Carrion
86′Jerónimo CacciabueLuis Johan Moreno
90′Daniel ClavijoRooney Troya

Olimpico Atahualpa, QuitoReferee: J. C. Andrade Arreaga

Universidad Catolica 66%
Draw 21%
Orense SC 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 1
71 Possession % 29
5 Corners 3
8 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 3
0 Saves 3
668 Accurate passes 252

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversidad CatolicaDrawOrense SC
Model74.2%16.6%9.2%
Market63.7%22.1%14.2%
Final66.4%20.7%12.9%
Edge+10.5%-5.6%-5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Universidad Catolica

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices Universidad Catolica below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universidad Ca ↓ / Orense SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 11% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Universidad Catolica and Orense SC expected goals

Universidad Catolica 2.60
Orense SC 0.85

Total expected goals: 3.45

Universidad Catolica and Orense SC attack and defence ratings

Universidad Catolica

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Orense SC

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.42 +42%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC: result vs prediction

Universidad Catolica 2 – 1 Orense SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universidad Catolica 66.4% 1.51 +10.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.9% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.6% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.1% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Universidad Catolica win 53.5% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universidad Catolica66.4%
Draw20.7%
Orense SC12.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
Both teams to scoreYes53.6%
No46.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.1%
12 (either side)79.3%
X2 (draw or away)33.6%
Handicap -1Universidad Catolica win53.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss25.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.8%
3-09.3%
2-19.1%

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC stats

Universidad Catolica and Orense SC recent form

newest first
Universidad Catolica WDDWDL
Orense SC WLLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universidad Catolica and Orense SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universidad Catolica record

  • They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

Orense SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Universidad Catolica wins 4Draws 1Orense SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Orense SCUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-2
2025-11-29Universidad CatolicaOrense SCLiga Pro0-0
2025-10-25Orense SCUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro2-1
2025-08-09Orense SCUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-1
2025-04-20Universidad CatolicaOrense SCLiga Pro2-0
2024-09-14Orense SCUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro2-2
2024-03-31Universidad CatolicaOrense SCLiga Pro5-1
2023-09-16Orense SCUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-2
2023-04-18Universidad CatolicaOrense SCLiga Pro1-1
2022-09-18Universidad CatolicaOrense SCLiga Pro2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.7%, draw 22.1%, away 14.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.46 4.30 6.48
Bet365 1.44 4.10 7.00
BetVictor 1.36 3.60 5.25
Betano 1.52 4.40 7.30
Betfair 1.36 4.40 7.00
Marathonbet 1.41 4.15 6.25
Pinnacle 1.46 4.40 6.67
SBO 1.39 3.80 5.42
William Hill 1.44 3.90 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▲ +0.02
X 4.15 —
2 6.48 ▼ -0.25

8 snapshots recorded, from .