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Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 29

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC

4 – 3 Full time

5′C. Ortiz
9′Michael Bermúdez
35′D. Dorregaray
38′E. Mero
42′Pablo González
45′Yardely Rodriguez
45′A. Herrera
46′G. NapaJ. Pinos
59′S. LaurinoP. Mancilla
64′P. GonzalezK. Sambonino
66′M. ParralesA. Mena
69′R. AriasE. P. Ladines Calvache
74′O. QuinonezA. Lorenzo
75′V. Burgoa
77′D. Dorregaray
80′M. BermudezR. Jaramilo
80′C. OrtizW. Chuchuca
82′Gabriel Achilier
90′V. Burgoa

Estadio 9 de Mayo, MachalaReferee: C. Gutierrez

Orense SC 42%
Draw 29%
Guayaquil City FC 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
6 Corners 1
14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 3
1 Saves 2
264 Accurate passes 309

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrense SCDrawGuayaquil City FC
Model26.5%30.1%43.4%
Market47.0%28.0%25.0%
Final41.8%28.6%29.6%
Edge-20.5%+2.1%+18.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orense SC ↓ / Guayaquil City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 12% 9% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Orense SC and Guayaquil City FC expected goals

Orense SC 1.00
Guayaquil City FC 1.34

Total expected goals: 2.34

Orense SC and Guayaquil City FC attack and defence ratings

Orense SC

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Guayaquil City FC

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC: result vs prediction

Orense SC 4 – 3 Guayaquil City FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Orense SC 41.8% 2.39 -20.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.5% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score No 52.1% 1.92 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 73.5% 1.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orense SC41.8%
Draw28.6%
Guayaquil City FC29.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.5%
Under 2.558.5%
Both teams to scoreYes47.9%
No52.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.4%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)58.2%
Handicap -1Orense SC win10.1%
Push (exactly one goal)16.3%
Loss73.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-111.6%
0-010.9%

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC stats

Orense SC and Guayaquil City FC recent form

newest first
Orense SC LLLWDL
Guayaquil City FC LWWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orense SC and Guayaquil City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orense SC record

  • They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Guayaquil City FC record

  • They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Orense SC wins 2Draws 3Guayaquil City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-19Guayaquil City FCOrense SCLiga Pro0-1
2023-08-26Guayaquil City FCOrense SCLiga Pro1-0
2023-04-03Orense SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro3-2
2022-10-23Guayaquil City FCOrense SCLiga Pro1-1
2022-05-28Orense SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro0-1
2021-09-18Orense SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro2-0
2021-03-31Guayaquil City FCOrense SCLiga Pro4-1
2020-10-26Guayaquil City FCOrense SCLiga Pro1-1
2020-02-29Orense SCGuayaquil City FCLiga Pro1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 28.0%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.00 3.40 3.60
1xBet 1.97 3.30 3.84
Bet365 1.95 3.20 3.70
BetVictor 1.85 2.90 3.20
Betano 2.00 3.30 3.75
Betfair 1.91 3.30 3.60
Dafabet 1.96 3.25 3.80
Marathonbet 1.90 3.18 3.70
Pinnacle 2.00 3.32 4.01
SBO 1.98 3.01 3.22
Superbet 1.97 3.30 3.80
Unibet 1.83 3.40 4.40
William Hill 2.00 3.00 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.97 ▲ +0.27
X 3.30 ▼ -0.12
2 3.70 ▼ -0.91

5 snapshots recorded, from .