Liga Pro
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Leones del Norte
vs
Orense SC
1 – 0 Full time
| 38′ | Nicolás Monserrat | ||
| 41′ | Emiliano Griffa | ||
| 46′ | D. PazminoT. Amilivia | ||
| 59′ | R. JaramiloG. Rostagno | ||
| 59′ | E. PluasC. Ortiz | ||
| 61′ | C. Solano | ||
| 69′ | M. CaicedoB. Kreiman | ||
| 78′ | Beder Caicedo | ||
| 78′ | P. VelascoJ. Valencia | ||
| 79′ | C. SolanoR. Arroyo | ||
| 79′ | E. GriffaE. Pepinos | ||
| 83′ | M. ParralesW. Chuchuca | ||
| 83′ | V. BurgoaL. Garces | ||
| 90′ | P. MaderoJ. Cabeza |
Leones del Norte
49%
Draw
28%
Orense SC
23%
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 7 |
| 278 | Accurate passes | 233 |
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones del Norte vs Orense SC
| Probability | Leones del Norte | Draw | Orense SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 24.8% | 17.8% |
| Market | 46.2% | 29.1% | 24.7% |
| Final | 49.0% | 28.0% | 23.0% |
| Edge | +11.2% | -4.3% | -6.9% |
Why Leones del Norte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leones del Norte below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
77%
3+ goals
52%
No goals
7%
Leones del Norte and Orense SC expected goals
Leones del Norte
1.83
Orense SC
0.93
Total expected goals: 2.77
Leones del Norte and Orense SC attack and defence ratings
Leones del Norte
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.06 +6%
Orense SC
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.32 +32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC: result vs prediction
Leones del Norte 1 – 0 Orense SC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 49.0% | 2.04 | +11.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 49.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Orense SC | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC stats
Leones del Norte and Orense SC recent form
| Leones del Norte |
LLWLDW |
| Orense SC |
LLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones del Norte and Orense SC going into this match
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orense SC record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Leones del Norte wins
0Draws
1Orense SC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Orense SC | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Leones del Norte | Orense SC | Copa Ecuador | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leones del Norte vs Orense SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 29.1%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 3.15 | 3.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.20 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 2.75 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.08 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.27 | 4.10 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 2.78 | 2.87 |
| Superbet | 2.07 | 3.15 | 3.65 |
| Unibet | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.90 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.98 ▼ -0.25
X
3.15 ▲ +0.15
2
3.70 ▲ +0.60
8 snapshots recorded, from .