Liga Pro
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Libertad
vs
Emelec
1 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Jefferson Valverde | ||
| 45′ | C. Valencia | ||
| 51′ | Rodrigo Morinigo | ||
| 56′ | J. RuizG. Napoli | ||
| 56′ | A. MinaJ. Cevallos | ||
| 56′ | F. PizziniR. Saya | ||
| 61′ | J. Cevallos | ||
| 63′ | Bryan Caicedo | ||
| 63′ | X. E. Pineda AranaJ. Bravo | ||
| 70′ | D. CoronelG. J. Cortez Casierra | ||
| 70′ | A. ChereE. Caicedo | ||
| 76′ | L. FragozoV. Griffith | ||
| 83′ | V. BrandaC. Orejuela | ||
| 85′ | R. CarrilloL. Klimowicz |
Libertad
44%
Draw
30%
Emelec
27%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 7 |
| 328 | Accurate passes | 328 |
Libertad vs Emelec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Libertad vs Emelec
| Probability | Libertad | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 29.4% | 16.4% |
| Market | 40.1% | 29.7% | 30.2% |
| Final | 43.6% | 29.7% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +14.1% | -0.3% | -13.8% |
Why Libertad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Libertad below the model: +14.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
63%
3+ goals
35%
No goals
13%
Libertad and Emelec expected goals
Libertad
1.43
Emelec
0.68
Total expected goals: 2.11
Libertad and Emelec attack and defence ratings
Libertad
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Emelec
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Libertad vs Emelec: result vs prediction
Libertad 1 – 1 Emelec
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Delfin SC vs Tecnico Universitario — team news & stats
- LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC
- Macara v Manta FC — match page
- Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City FC — team news & stats
- Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle
- Universidad Catolica v Aucas — match page
- Leones del Norte vs Orense SC — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Libertad vs Emelec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 43.6% | 2.29 | +14.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 43.6% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Emelec | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.6% |
| No | 61.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 0-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
Libertad vs Emelec stats
Libertad and Emelec recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Libertad and Emelec going into this match
Libertad record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
Libertad vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
1Libertad wins
4Draws
2Emelec wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-01 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-05 | Libertad | Emelec | Liga Pro | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-27 | Emelec | Libertad | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Libertad vs Emelec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.1%, draw 29.7%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.34 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.16 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.06 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.36 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 2.78 | 2.57 |
| Superbet | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 2.38 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.30 ▼ -0.38
X
3.10 ▲ +0.10
2
3.05 ▲ +0.55
8 snapshots recorded, from .