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Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 28

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle

2 – 1 Full time

27′Damián Díaz
27′Mateo Carabajal
40′C. Gonzalez
44′Jefferson Intriago
46′C. GonzalezD. Reasco
46′J. Wila
50′Pablo Marcelo Trobbiani
60′José Contreras
63′H. QuintanaJ. Viacava
70′Joaquín Papa Monestier
73′W. VargasB. Castillo
75′J. SornozaR. Briones
75′E. PataM. Perello
79′J. IntriagoJ. R. Quinonez Ruiz
79′L. CanoE. Mendoza
88′D. DiazD. Benedetto
89′J. WilaJ. Garcia
90′J. MendezY. Ochoa
90′D. Benedetto

Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha, GuayaquilReferee: O. Contreras

Barcelona SC 25%
Draw 28%
Independiente del Valle 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 4
59 Possession % 41
5 Corners 3
10 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 5
392 Accurate passes 248

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBarcelona SCDrawIndependiente del Valle
Model17.5%24.8%57.7%
Market27.9%28.8%43.3%
Final25.3%27.8%46.9%
Edge-10.4%-4.0%+14.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente del Valle

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Independiente del Valle below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Barcelona SC ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle expected goals

Barcelona SC 0.92
Independiente del Valle 1.82

Total expected goals: 2.74

Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle attack and defence ratings

Barcelona SC

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.90 +90%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle: result vs prediction

Barcelona SC 2 – 1 Independiente del Valle

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 46.9% 2.13 +14.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.8% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.6% 1.94 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.4% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Barcelona SC25.3%
Draw27.8%
Independiente del Valle46.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%
Both teams to scoreYes51.6%
No48.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.1%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)74.7%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win33.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss42.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.8%
0-210.7%
0-110.6%

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle stats

Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle recent form

newest first
Barcelona SC LWDLDL
Independiente del Valle DWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle going into this match

league record before kick-off

Barcelona SC record

  • They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 22 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Barcelona SC wins 2Draws 6Independiente del Valle wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10Independiente del ValleBarcelona SCLiga Pro1-0
2025-12-21Independiente del ValleBarcelona SCLiga Pro1-0
2025-10-05Barcelona SCIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-3
2025-07-06Independiente del ValleBarcelona SCLiga Pro1-1
2025-05-28Independiente del ValleBarcelona SCCONMEBOL Libertadores2-1
2025-04-02Barcelona SCIndependiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores1-0
2025-03-09Barcelona SCIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-4
2024-08-10Barcelona SCIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro3-2
2024-03-09Independiente del ValleBarcelona SCLiga Pro3-1
2023-08-19Barcelona SCIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.9%, draw 28.8%, away 43.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.15 3.35 2.20
1xBet 3.40 3.24 2.14
Bet365 3.30 3.20 2.15
BetVictor 2.90 2.88 1.95
Betano 3.35 3.15 2.20
Betfair 3.10 3.25 2.10
Dafabet 3.30 3.20 2.14
Marathonbet 3.28 3.12 2.06
Pinnacle 3.48 3.33 2.13
SBO 2.99 2.99 2.08
Superbet 3.35 3.25 2.17
Unibet 3.45 3.30 2.08
William Hill 3.20 3.00 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 ▲ +0.17
X 3.20 ▲ +0.08
2 2.13 ▼ -0.10

7 snapshots recorded, from .