Garuda Lions
Today
Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 28

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas

1 – 1 Full time

15′Mateo Burdisso
33′Emiliano Clavijo
38′Facundo Martinez
45′Santiago Morales
45′J. Fajardo
59′E. ValenciaJ. Mina
59′F. MartinezL. Moreno
66′R. BolanosE. Preciado
69′M. A. Carcelen Carabali
72′M. AlonsoE. Mejia
73′Jhon ChancellorC. Medina
80′M. A. Carcelen CarabaliL. Arroyo
90′J. FajardoB. Palacios
90′A. MenaS. Tapiero

Olimpico Atahualpa, QuitoReferee: B. L. Salazar

Universidad Catolica 50%
Draw 28%
Aucas 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 8
2 Shots on target 5
61 Possession % 39
1 Corners 7
11 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
421 Accurate passes 250

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad Catolica vs Aucas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversidad CatolicaDrawAucas
Model50.9%27.7%21.4%
Market49.4%27.5%23.1%
Final49.8%27.6%22.7%
Edge+1.5%+0.3%-1.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Universidad Catolica

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.94.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universidad Ca ↓ / Aucas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Universidad Catolica and Aucas expected goals

Universidad Catolica 1.57
Aucas 0.94

Total expected goals: 2.51

Universidad Catolica and Aucas attack and defence ratings

Universidad Catolica

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Aucas

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas: result vs prediction

Universidad Catolica 1 – 1 Aucas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universidad Catolica 49.8% 2.01 +1.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.2% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.3% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.1% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universidad Catolica49.8%
Draw27.6%
Aucas22.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.3%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)50.2%
Handicap -1Universidad Catolica win27.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss49.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-011.6%
2-010.0%

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas stats

Universidad Catolica and Aucas recent form

newest first
Universidad Catolica DWDLWD
Aucas WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universidad Catolica and Aucas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universidad Catolica record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

Aucas record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Universidad Catolica wins 3Draws 5Aucas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-09AucasUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro2-1
2025-08-03Universidad CatolicaAucasLiga Pro6-2
2025-04-16AucasUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro2-1
2025-03-07Universidad CatolicaAucasCONMEBOL Sudamericana0-0
2024-11-09Universidad CatolicaAucasLiga Pro3-2
2024-05-19AucasUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro2-2
2023-08-17Universidad CatolicaAucasLiga Pro2-2
2023-03-19AucasUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro4-1
2022-09-05Universidad CatolicaAucasLiga Pro1-2
2022-04-21AucasUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 27.5%, away 23.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.90 3.45 3.90
1xBet 1.89 3.32 4.20
Bet365 1.90 3.40 4.10
BetVictor 1.75 3.00 3.40
Betano 1.91 3.40 4.00
Betfair 1.85 3.30 3.90
Dafabet 1.87 3.40 4.00
Marathonbet 1.82 3.20 4.05
Pinnacle 1.93 3.36 4.21
SBO 1.82 3.07 3.42
Superbet 1.87 3.45 4.00
Unibet 1.81 3.60 4.20
William Hill 1.85 3.00 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.87 ▲ +0.07
X 3.36 ▼ -0.10
2 4.00 —

8 snapshots recorded, from .