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Liga Pro · Full time ·Matchday 27

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

2 – 2 Full time

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, QuitoReferee: G. Gonzalez

Independiente del Valle 58%
Draw 23%
Universidad Catolica 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente del ValleDrawUniversidad Catolica
Model59.8%20.8%19.4%
Market57.1%23.9%19.1%
Final57.7%23.1%19.2%
Edge+2.7%-3.1%+0.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente del Valle

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.30.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Independiente del Valle below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Universidad Ca → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 5% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica expected goals

Independiente del Valle 2.34
Universidad Catolica 1.30

Total expected goals: 3.64

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica attack and defence ratings

Independiente del Valle

Attack 1.95 +95%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Universidad Catolica

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: result vs prediction

Independiente del Valle 2 – 2 Universidad Catolica

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente del Valle 57.7% 1.73 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.4% 1.42 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.5% 1.50 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.8% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.1% 2.50 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente del Valle57.7%
Draw23.1%
Universidad Catolica19.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.4%
Under 2.529.6%
Both teams to scoreYes66.5%
No33.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.8%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)42.3%
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win39.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss40.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.3%
1-18.8%
3-17.3%

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica stats

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica recent form

newest first
Independiente del Valle WWWWWW
Universidad Catolica WDLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independiente del Valle record

  • They have won 22 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universidad Catolica record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Independiente del Valle wins 1Draws 3Universidad Catolica wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador0-3
2026-05-01Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro2-3
2025-12-14Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-1
2025-11-08Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro0-2
2025-10-13Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaCopa Ecuador1-2
2025-06-29Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleLiga Pro0-3
2025-03-02Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro1-1
2024-10-29Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaCopa Ecuador1-2
2024-10-22Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del ValleCopa Ecuador0-1
2024-09-28Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaLiga Pro5-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 57.1%, draw 23.9%, away 19.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.63 3.95 4.90
1xBet 1.64 3.94 4.87
Bet365 1.62 3.80 4.75
Betano 1.65 3.85 4.90
Betfair 1.55 3.90 5.00
Dafabet 1.59 3.85 4.80
Marathonbet 1.58 3.80 4.70
Pinnacle 1.63 3.98 4.82
SBO 1.55 3.48 4.25
Superbet 1.62 3.90 4.90
Unibet 1.58 4.10 5.10
William Hill 1.62 3.50 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.62 ▲ +0.05
X 3.88 ▼ -0.02
2 4.85 ▼ -0.25

11 snapshots recorded, from .