Independiente del Valle
vs
Deportes Tolima
3 – 1 Full time
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima
| Probability | Independiente del Valle | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.4% | 15.1% | 7.5% |
| Market | 61.9% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
| Final | 65.8% | 21.5% | 12.7% |
| Edge | +15.5% | -8.6% | -7.0% |
Why Independiente del Valle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Independiente del Valle below the model: +15.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente del Valle and Deportes Tolima expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Independiente del Valle and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings
Independiente del Valle
Deportes Tolima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction
Independiente del Valle 3 – 1 Deportes Tolima
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 65.8% | 1.52 | +15.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 65.8% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Deportes Tolima | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win | 57.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 22.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.3% |
| 3-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima stats
Independiente del Valle and Deportes Tolima recent form
| Independiente del Valle |
WWWWWW |
| Deportes Tolima |
DLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente del Valle and Deportes Tolima going into this match
Independiente del Valle record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Deportes Tolima | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-05 | Deportes Tolima | Independiente del Valle | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-14 | Independiente del Valle | Deportes Tolima | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.8%, draw 23.7%, away 14.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.51 | 3.90 | 6.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 4.16 | 6.89 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.10 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.23 | 6.55 |
| SBO | 1.48 | 3.76 | 6.18 |
| Superbet | 1.55 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| Unibet | 1.54 | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .