Emelec
vs
Leones del Norte
2 – 1 Full time
| -5′ | Jaime Ayoví | ||
| 3′ | J. Ruiz | ||
| 24′ | J. Anangono | ||
| 46′ | L. KlimowiczF. Pizzini | ||
| 51′ | Aníbal Leguizamón | ||
| 53′ | I. GuerricoA. Mina | ||
| 63′ | M. ValeroE. Bores | ||
| 67′ | S. PortocarreroM. Luque | ||
| 70′ | Tobías Coppo | ||
| 73′ | L. FragozoG. Napoli | ||
| 73′ | R. CarrilloR. Saya | ||
| 75′ | T. CoppoD. Pazmino | ||
| 75′ | C. SolanoE. Pepinos | ||
| 88′ | J. AnangonoJ. Cabeza | ||
| 88′ | E. GriffaT. Amilivia | ||
| 90′ | A. Leguizamon |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 275 | Accurate passes | 307 |
Emelec vs Leones del Norte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emelec vs Leones del Norte
| Probability | Emelec | Draw | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.3% | 31.7% | 40.0% |
| Market | 51.0% | 28.7% | 20.4% |
| Final | 45.3% | 29.4% | 25.3% |
| Edge | -22.6% | +3.1% | +19.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Emelec and Leones del Norte expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Emelec and Leones del Norte attack and defence ratings
Emelec
Leones del Norte
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Emelec vs Leones del Norte: result vs prediction
Emelec 2 – 1 Leones del Norte
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emelec vs Leones del Norte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 45.3% | 2.21 | -22.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 45.3% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Leones del Norte | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emelec win | 10.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 71.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-1 | 12.3% |
Emelec vs Leones del Norte stats
Emelec and Leones del Norte recent form
| Emelec |
LWDLLD |
| Leones del Norte |
LWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emelec and Leones del Norte going into this match
Emelec record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
Leones del Norte record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec vs Leones del Norte head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Leones del Norte | Emelec | Copa Ecuador | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Emelec vs Leones del Norte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 28.7%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.84 | 3.35 | 4.35 |
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.32 | 4.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.41 | 4.97 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 2.99 | 3.81 |
| Superbet | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Unibet | 1.88 | 3.30 | 4.25 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .